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Jan 18, 2019 - Market Blog

1/18/2019

 

Everybody's Working For the Weekend

  

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Equities

 

Global equities look eager to add to yesterday’s gains of nearly 0.7% across the board as speculation around the easing of Chinese tariffs helped to fuel the push higher. Ironically, nothing concrete has been substantiated ahead of a bi-lateral meeting scheduled for later this month. Yesterday’s Job data impressed once again with lower weekly filings coming in at 213K which surprisingly reached the lowest level over the last month despite the ongoing government shutdown.  A blowout Philly Fed number of 17 also helped to ease immediate concerns around productivity into the new year which have shifted investors back to a more risk-on mentality. 

 

Credit Markets:

 

The 10-year Treasury currently rests near 2.763% which equates to the highest yield in nearly 3 weeks, possibly beginning to hamper the recent resurgence in home refinances should the trend continue. Recent fed-speak has hinted at a more accommodative pace ahead of the January meeting at the end of January as little reason for another hike has surfaced as of late. 

 

Commodities:

 

Oil Futures (/CL) are enjoying an additional 1% jump today to push crude to $53 a barrel with a 2% improvement looking likely for the week overall. The recent surge helps to inch the product back above its 50 day average for the first time since mid-October as prospects improve.  Palladium reached all-time highs overnight to extend over $1,400 an ounce which is a component used in auto manufacturing despite the recent warnings from several car makers. Gold Futures (/GC) are coming under pressure this morning somewhat with nearly a 1% reduction as the U.S. dollar inversely reaches fresh weekly highs heading into the extended weekend.

 

Pre-Market:

 

U.S. Equity Futures (/ES) are pegging a double-digit climb to chase monthly highs despite a string of major obstacles that still remain unresolved. U.S. Markets will remain shuttered on Monday which will shift all eyes to China’s fourth-quarter economic growth reporting which is broadly expected to reach its lowest levels since the global financial crisis. 

 

Major Economic Reports:

8:05 am CT – John Williams Speaks

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

 

Notable Earnings:       

 

Friday – 1/18:

A.M–  N/A

P.M.– N/A

 

Monday – 1/21:

A.M. – N/A (Market Closed)

P.M –  N/A

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Jan 17, 2019 - Market Blog

1/17/2019

 

 

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Equities

Positive earnings results from some bank stocks helped U.S. equities rise for a second consecutive session.  So far, earnings results have been better than some investors had feared.  Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC) both rose by more than 7% after the banks reported better than expected earnings.  Goldman Sachs got a boost from its merger and acquisition business, and Bank of America saw a lift from rising interest rates.  United Continental (UAL) jumped 6.4% to $86.36 after the airline exceeded profit and sales projections in the latest quarter.  Major indexes moved lower from their intraday highs after a report that federal prosecutors were opening a criminal investigation into China’s Huawei Technologies for stealing trade secrets from U.S.  business partners.  On the day, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) gained 0.6% to 24207, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 0.2% to 7034, and the S&P 500 (SPX) was up 0.2% to 2616.

 

Credit Markets:

Traders did  not show much concern over the latest struggle of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan, which sent U.S. Treasuries slightly lower.  The 10 year treasury yield (TNX) rose to  2.729% from a settlement of 2.7105 on Tuesday.

 

Commodities:

U.S. Crude oil prices were slightly higher, despite a bearish weekly U.S. gasoline inventory report.  The data showed that U.S. gasoline inventories were at their highest level in nearly two years, amid waning demand.  U.S. Crude oil futures (/CL) were 0.4% higher yesterday, to close at $52.31.  Oil prices have risen 11 of the past 13 sessions.

 

Pre-Market:

Jobless claims were reported at 7:30 CT.  Data showed that initial jobless claims fell by 3,000 to 213,000 for the week ending on January 12th.  Economists surveyed were looking for 220,000 new claims.  Before the bell,  Morgan Stanley (MS) reported a top and bottom line miss for the fourth quarter.  The bank had a big revenue miss on fixed income trading, and the shares are over 3% lower and trading near $42.80.  As of this writing, U.S. Crude oil futures (/CL) are 1.7% lower near $51.70 per barrel and S&P 500 futures (/ES) are 0.2% lower near 2607.

 

Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT –  Housing Starts

7:30 am CT -   Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT -   Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

9:30 am CT -   EIA Natural Gas Report

10:30 am CT - 4-Week and 8-Week Bill Auction

12:00 pm CT - 10-Yr TIPS Auction

3:30 pm CT -   Fed Balance Sheet

3:30 pm CT -    Money Supply

 

Notable Earnings:       

    

Thursday  – 1/17:

A.M. –  KEY, MS, SCHW

P.M. –  AXP, NFLX

 

Friday – 1/18:

A.M. –   KSU, SLB, VFC

P.M. –   N/A 

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Jan 16, 2019 - Market Blog

1/16/2019

 

Bank Shot!

  

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Equities

 

U.S. Equities (/ES) continue to climb the wall of worry as a string of favorable bank earnings have temporarily fended off other major news. Theresa  May was handed a historic defeat in yesterday’s disastrous Brexit vote which will now be followed up by a vote of confidence today likely costing her a job.  The result was so bad that many are now speculating the entire Brexit referendum may be completely dissolved with such a lopsided vote.  Progress with a China deal continues to crawl at a snail’s pace with no meaningful concessions reported at this stage in the negotiation process. The ongoing Govt. shutdown stalemate also continues unimpeded with no viable resolution appearing anywhere on the horizon as frustration grows. Yesterday saw the Dow Jones ($DJI) snap back above 24K with a 155 point surge. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SPX) reclaimed an 1% advantage to end at 2610 with only industrials and materials lagging. The Nasdaq (COMP) outpaced other benchmarks by gaining an impressive 1.7% to end at 7023 thanks in big part to a Netflix (NFLX) subscription hike. 

 

Credit Markets:

The 10 year treasury yield (TNX) has ticked up to 2.72% following the implications of the Brexit defeat. Mortgage applications surged 13.5% last week thanks to the recent relief in interest rates as some buyers return to the market after painfully slow holiday inaction.  Refinances primarily drove the welcomed result with a 19% increase in new applications. 

 

Commodities:

Energy prices (/CL) are dipping by nearly 1% this morning back near $52 a barrel over never-ending worries of slowing global demand.  A weekly inventory checkpoint will be reported just after the open through the EIA to take a snapshot of recent production levels. Natural Gas (/NG) is spiking nearly 5% this morning with wider than average daily ranges occurring all week after gapping from lows with severe temperature drops anticipated for much of the country into the end of the month.

 

Pre-Market:

 

U.S. Import prices fell 1% which was less than anticipated with oil prices being the main anomaly.  U.S. Equity Futures (/ES) are currently nudging higher near double-digit gains ahead of the open in response to positive banking reports up to this point.  Volatility continues to contract in dramatic fashion with another 4% retraction happening today in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to realize only half the value since the 36 high water mark was capped on December 26th.  A small dose of Fed speak and Treasury International capital will be shared today with little variance expected.  Earnings will likely continue to be the main sentiment driver throughout the remainder of the week. 

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

6:00 am CT - MBA Mortgage Applications

7:30 am CT – Import and Export Prices

7:55 am CT – Redbook

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:30 am CT -  EIA Petroleum Status Report

12:00 pm CT – Neel Kashkari Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book

3:00 pm CT – Treasury International Capital

 

Notable Earnings:       

   

Wednesday – 1/16:

A.M–    BAC, BK, BLK, CMA, GS, PNC, USB

P.M.–   AA, CSX, KMI

 

Thursday  – 1/17:

A.M. –  KEY, MS, SCHW

P.M. –  AXP, NFLX

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Jan 15, 2019 - Market Blog

1/15/2019

 

And they’re off!

  

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Equities

U.S. equities opened lower yesterday and never managed to turn around after being weighed down by less than stellar Chinese economic data.  A report showed China’s exports unexpectedly slid in December, and the figures showed that uncertainty over trade and slowing global growth were beginning to take a toll on their economy.  Utility companies moved lower after mounting issues related to California wildfires pushed PG&E (PCG) toward filing for bankruptcy protection by the end of the month.  The shares plunged 52% to $8.38, their largest one day loss ever.  Bank shares were broadly higher after Citigroup (C) kicked off the latest quarterly earnings season.  The shares moved 4% higher to $58.93, after the global bank showed profitable results for the fourth quarter.  On the day, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 0.9% to 6905.92, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) fell 0.4% to 23909.84, and the S&P 500 (SPX) dropped 0.5% to 2582.51.

 

Credit Markets:

U.S. Treasuries finished mixed after soft economic data out of China and the Eurozone.  The yield on the 10yr. U.S. Treasury note settled at 2.710%, and up from Friday’s close of 2.701%. 

 

Commodities:

Forecasts of much colder weather, sent Natural Gas futures (/NG) to their biggest one day gain in two months.  Nat. gas futures for February surged 16% higher to $3.5910.  The natural gas market is 22% higher in 2019.  After a milder than normal December and early January, prices could continue to be volatile. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will report on gas storage on Thursday.

 

Pre-Market:

The Producer Price Index (CPI) figures for December were released at 7:30 CT.  The data showed that producer prices fell 0.2% in December versus an expected 0.1% drop.  Shares of JP Morgan (JPM) are trading over 2% lower near $98.50, after it missed earnings expectations for the first time in years.  Delta Airlines (DAL) reported earnings that were in line with expectations, but missed on guidance.  The shares are slightly lower near $47.60 in the pre-market.   As of this writing, U.S. Crude oil futures (/CL) are 2% higher near $51.60 per barrel, Gold futures (/GC) are 0.1% higher near $1293, and S&P 500 futures (/ES) are 0.1% higher near 2583.

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

7:30 am CT –  PPI-FD

7:30 am CT –  Empire State Mfg. Survey

10:00 am CT – 4-Week Bill and 8-Week Bill Announcement

10:30 am CT – Neel Kashkari Speaks

12:00 pm CT – Robert Kaplan Speaks

12:00 pm CT – Esther George Speaks

 

 

Notable Earnings:       

   

Tuesday – 1/15:

AM.–   DAL, JPM, UNH, WFC

P.M. – UAL

Wednesday – 1/16:

A.M. – BAC, BK, BLK, CMA, GS, PNC, USB

P.M. – AA, CSX, KMI 

 

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Jan 14, 2019 - The Week Ahead

TradeWise – The Week Ahead

January 14, 2019

 

Equities (/ES) are taking a major step backwards this morning as more signs of trouble surface out of China’s manufacturing complex over the weekend. Exports dropped 4.4% with imports sliding an even worse 7.6% over the month of December signaling extensive collateral damage stemming from the mounting trade gap with the United States. Asian markets are all down nearly 1% to start out the week with the exception of the Japanese Nikkei which is up by nearly the same amount. European markets are also on edge early with a key Brexit vote expected tomorrow as Theresa May barely hangs on for her political life. The U.S. Government shutdown has now entered its 23rd day, which officially tops the record for the longest span without an immediate end in sight. The gridlock is starting to take its toll on sentiment with employment repercussions now expected to push unemployment back above 4%. Last Friday ended with little fanfare as both the Dow Jones ($DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) slipped in tandem by less than 0.02% to the downside off light trade activity. Overall, the first full trading week of the new year saw all major benchmarks clear at least 2.5% to the good as the welcome recovery gained traction after the end of year snafu. 

 

Earnings season kicks off in earnest with Citigroup (C) reporting a mixed result this morning after missing on revenue targets. Earning expectations have deflated somewhat as of late with expectations of growth lying closer to 11% for the upcoming quarter after multiple guidance warnings. Bellwethers such as: Delta Airlines, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, United, Goldman Sachs, American Express, Caterpillar, and Netflix are all on deck this week which will likely set the tone for the remainder of the month. Crude Futures (/CL) are attempting to hold steady above $50 a barrel after another 1% drop was partially spurred by China’s discouraging economic checkpoint.  Friday became the first daily drop in energy prices over the last 8. Gold Futures (/GC) are holding steady near $1290 an ounce today after a mammoth-sized merger was announced over the weekend to create the world’s largest gold miner in Newmont (NEM). 

 

The yield on the U.S. Treasury is cracking back below 2.7%  which also prompted a death-cross to develop on various moving averages to sound an alarm on a potential implosion. Fed speak will be rampant all week to better assess their methodology around the current conditions being in uncharted territory with several data points going unreported during the shutdown.  Other key global leaders such as: ECB President Draghi, Bank of England Governor Carney, Bank of Japan President Kuroda are all slated to make scattered appearances this week which may easily influence market sentiment. 

 

Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

 

Monday:

A.M. – C

P.M. – N/A

 

Tuesday:

AM.– DAL, JPM, UNH, WFC

P.M. – UAL

 

Wednesday:

A.M. – BAC, BK, BLK, CMA, GS, PNC, USB

P.M. – AA, CSX, KMI

 

Thursday:

A.M. – KEY, MS, SCHW

P.M. – AXP, CAT, NFLX

 

Friday:

A.M. – KSU, SLB, VFC

P.M. – N/A

Economic Releases (1/14-1/18):

 

Monday:

N/A

 

Tuesday:

8-Week Bill, 3-Yr Note, 10-Yr Note and 30-Yr Bond Settlement

7:30 am CT – PPI-FD

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg Survey

10:00 am CT – 4-Week Bill and 8-Week Bill Announcement

10:30 am CT – Neel Kashkari Speaks

12:00 pm CT – Robert Kaplan Speaks

12:00 pm CT – Esther George Speaks

 

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT - MBA Mortgage Applications

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

7:30 am CT – Import and Export Prices

7:55 am CT – Redbook

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:30 am CT -  EIA Petroleum Status Report

12:00 pm CT – Neel Kashkari Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book

3:00 pm CT – Treasury International Capital

 

Thursday:

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

7:30 am CT – Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

9:30 am CT – EIA Natural Gas Report

10:30 am CT –4-Week and 8-Week Bill Auction

12:00 pm CT –10-Yr TIPS Auction

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet

3:30 pm CT - Money Supply

 

Friday:

8:05 am CT – John Williams Speaks

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

Showing Week of Jan 07, 2019

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Jan 11, 2019 - Market Blog

1/11/2019

 

The Power of Powell

  

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Equities

Fed Chairman Powell’s midday comments indicating the central bank was willing to slow its pace of raising interest rates, sent stocks higher after losses earlier in the session.  Earlier in the day, investors sent equities lower after weak economic data out of Europe and Asia and downbeat holiday sales reports from retailers.  Macy’s (M) dropped 18% after the department store reported weak December sales and lowered future guidance.  Kohl’s (KSS) and L Brands (LB) also came out with lackluster holiday sales results, sending both of them more than 4% lower.  The negativity spilled over to one of the bright spots of the sector, Target (TGT). The retailer had posted better results over the past few months, but the shares lost 2.9% to close at $68.29.  Airlines were also under pressure after American Airlines (AAL) lowered their profit guidance for the year.  AAL lost 4.1% to $32.04.  On the bright side, industrial companies helped buoy the S&P 500 (SPX) higher.  One of the leaders was aerospace giant, Boeing (BA).  The shares rose 2.6% to $352.61 after an analyst raised his rating on the company.  On the day, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 0.4% to 6986.07, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) added 0.5% to 24001.92, and the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 0.5% to 2596.64.

 

Credit Markets:

After a soft 30yr bond auction yesterday, U.S. Treasuries were nearly unchanged.  The yield on the 10yr. U.S. Treasury note settled at 2.731%, and higher than Wednesday’s close of 2.728%.  Yields had dropped overnight with global equities, but reversed course as U.S. stocks rose and a lackluster 30yr. auction.

 

Commodities:

U.S. Crude oil prices settled higher for the ninth day in a row, and their longest winning streak in nine years. U.S. crude oil futures (/CL) reversed earlier losses to close 0.4% higher at $52.59 per barrel.  This resulted in a four week high for the commodity.  Gold had an up and down day and ended 0.4% lower at $1,287.40 per troy ounce.  The precious metal was hurt by a stronger U.S. dollar which made it more expensive for overseas buyers.

 

 

Pre-Market:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for December were released at 7:30 CT.  The data showed that consumer prices fell 0.1% in December and were 1.9% higher on an annualized basis, which were both in line with expectations.  General Motors (GM) raised guidance prior to the open, and the shares are trading almost 6% higher near $37 per share.  As of this writing, U.S. Crude oil futures (/CL) are 1% lower near $52 per barrel, Gold futures (/GC) are 0.2% higher near $1290, and S&P 500 futures (/ES) are 0.3% lower near 2585.

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

7:30 am CT –   CPI

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

1:00 pm CT -   Treasury Budget

 

 

Notable Earnings:       

   

Friday – 1/11:

A.M–  N/A

P.M.– N/A

 

Monday – 1/14:

A.M. – C

P.M –  N/A

 

 

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Jan 10, 2019 - Market Blog

1/10/2019

 

Day 20

  

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Equities

The New Year rally has stalled out somewhat after four straight sessions of gains ushering in 2019. U.S. Equities (/ES) are indicating a lower opening by nearly 0.3% as overnight manufacturing data out of China have raised a red flag of further manifestations of a global slowdown which has been exacerbated by the ongoing trade fall-out. Europe is also coming under pressure with Industrial output in Italy dropping to only 2.1% annually which is its worst performance in 4 years to muddy the waters further after Germany’s latest recessionary fears.  A pivotal Brexit vote is expected at some point next week with debates resuming in Britain’s Parliament today after an extended holiday break. 

 

Credit Markets:

The 10 year Treasury is holding firm near 2.71% after weekly unemployment numbers fell by 7,000 filings to 216K. Rumors of a possible credit downgrade of U.S. debt has begun to swirl should the gridlock in Washington continue much longer which could have a profound impact on future borrowing costs. 

 

Commodities:

Metal prices are mostly trading flat this morning as Gold (/GC) holds steady just below a key 1300 an ounce level. The dollar has taken a hit lately with the Government shutdown showing no signs of relief even after 20 days. Oil Futures (/CL) are slipping by 1% for its first negative performance in over two weeks with more stockpiling evident on the domestic front. 

 

Pre-Market:

 

Retail sales numbers are beginning to trickle in this morning with polarizing results separating both the winners and losers this holiday season. Powerhouses, Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) are both indicated in the red with higher-end Macy’s (M) and Nordstrom (JWN) in free-fall. Attention will likely be garnered by the FOMC throughout the session with Chairman Powell speaking to the Economic Club of Washington just before noon followed by his Vice chair later tonight to offer more insight into the current state of the economy. A string of other Governors will also share their philosophies all throughout the session.  

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

 

7:30 am CT – Jobless Claims

7:35 am CT – FOMC Member Barkin Speaks

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

9:30 am CT – EIA Natural Gas Report

10:00 am CT -- 10-Yr TIPS Announcement

10:30 am CT – 4- Week and 8-Week Bill Auction

11:30 am CT – FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

11:45 am CT – FOMC  Chairmain Powell Speaks

12:00 pm CT – FOMC Member Evans Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 30-Yr Bond Auction

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply

6:00 pm CT – FOMC Vice Chair Clarida Speaks

 

 

Notable Earnings:       

  

Thursday – 1/10:

A.M. –  N/A

P.M –  N/A

 

Friday – 1/11:

A.M–  N/A

P.M.– N/A

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Jan 09, 2019 - Market Blog

1/9/2019

 

So you say there’s a chance…

  

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Equities

U.S. equities advanced for their third consecutive session, as signs of progress between the U.S. and China began to materialize.  After two days of midlevel talks, the two sides believe enough progress has been made to warrant a round of talks among cabinet officials.  Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors were higher, with trade sensitive stocks leading the way.  Shares of Boeing (BA) were up nearly 4% and Caterpillar (CAT) was up more than 1%. On the day, the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 1.1% to 6987, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) gained 1.1% to 23787, and the S&P 500 (SPX) added 1.0% to 2574.

 

Credit Markets:

The yield on the 10yr. U.S. Treasury note (TNX) rose to 2.716% from 2.684% on Monday.  U.S. bond prices fell yesterday, as a sign that the markets were more willing to take on risk.  Yields rose as the Treasury sold $38 billion of three year notes.

 

Commodities:

U.S. Crude oil prices rose for a seventh consecutive session yesterday, as oversupply fears have continued to subside.  U.S. Crude oil futures (/CL) gained 2.6%, and settled at $49.78 a barrel.  U.S. crude closed at its highest level since December 17th , and is up more than 15% from its low on December 24th

 

Pre-Market:

Constellation Brands (STZ) reported better than expected earnings, but lowered guidance before the open.   The shares are lower by 12%, and trading near $150 per share in the pre-market.  Fed Minutes will be released this afternoon, but should be less relevant after Powell’s comments last week.  As of this writing, U.S. crude oil futures (/CL) are 2.8% higher near $51 per barrel, Gold is unchanged near $1286, and S&P 500 futures (/ES) are 0.4% higher near 2582.

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

6:00 am CT -    MBA Mortgage Applications

7:20 am CT –   FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

8:00 am CT –   FOMC Member Evans Speaks

9:30 am CT -    EIA Petroleum Status Report

10:30 am CT – FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 10-Yr Note Auction

1:00 CT –         FOMC Minutes

 

Notable Earnings:       

   

Wednesday – 1/9:

A.M–    LEN, STZ

P.M.–   BBBY, KBH

 

Thursday  – 1/10:

A.M. –  DAL

P.M. –  N/A

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Jan 08, 2019 - Market Blog

1/8/2019

 

China talks.

  

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Equities

U.S. equities rose on Monday, as optimism of a positive result from U.S./ China trade talks, and rallying technology shares sent stocks higher.   Many investors are hoping the agreement to meet between the two countries will lead to a positive outcome.  There was a broad rally in technology shares, which helped push major indices higher.  Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Amazon (AMZN), and Netflix (NFLX) were all up more than 3%.  Amazon’s gains allowed it to surpass Microsoft (MSFT) as the largest publicly traded company, measured by market capitalization.  Shares of Dollar Tree (DLTR) rose 5.5%, after activist investor Starboard Value took a stake in the company.  Starboard is looking for the retailer to sell its Family Dollar business.  On the day, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) gained 1.3%, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) rose 0.4%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) added 0.7%.

 

Credit Markets:

The yield on the 10yr. U.S. Treasury note (TNX) rose 2.684% from 2.661% on Friday.  Yields had drifted lower overnight, but reversed course after the release of the service sector report.  The ISM report, which tracks non-manufacturing activity, fell to 57.6 in December.  This was worse than expected, but many were happy with any number above 50, given the recent negative data.

 

Commodities:

U.S. Crude oil prices rose for a sixth straight session yesterday, which marks the longest daily rally since July 2017.  U.S. Crude oil futures (/CL) had reached an intraday high of $49.79, after it was reported that Saudi Arabia was planning to make new cuts to its crude oil exports.  U.S. Natural Gas futures (/NG) fell to their lowest level in almost four months.  Warmer than average temperatures and a bearish report on the amount of natural gas in storage has weighed on the market.  February Natural gas futures lost 3.3% on Monday, to close at $2.949.

 

Pre-Market:

Encouraging remarks on the progress of U.S. and Chinese negotiations by President Trump and his commerce secretary have sent U.S. equity futures higher.  As of this writing, U.S. crude oil futures (/CL) are 1.8% higher near $49.50 per barrel, Gold is 0.5% lower near $1282, and S&P 500 futures (/ES) have gained 1% and are trading near 2577.

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

5:00 am CT –  NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

7:30 am CT–  International Trade

7:55 am CT –  Redbook

9:00 am CT -  JOLTS

10:00 am CT– 4-Week Bill and 8-Week Bill Announcement

12:00 pm CT– 3-Yr Note Auction

2:00 pm CT –  Consumer Credit

 

Notable Earnings:       

  

Tuesday  – 1/8:

A.M. –  N/A

P.M –   SGH

 

Wednesday – 1/9:

A.M–    LEN, STZ

P.M.–   BBBY, KBH

 

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**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

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Jan 07, 2019 - The Week Ahead

TradeWise – The Week Ahead

January 7, 2019

 

Equities (/ES) are trading in a relatively tight range this morning, likely digesting last Friday’s mammoth-sized rally somewhat.  The Dow Jones ($DJI) tacked on a massive 746 points or 3.3% in a single-session after a stellar monthly jobs report stemmed off much of the recent apprehension around an economic slowdown. The S&P 500 (SPX) also benefited handsomely with a 3.4% surge of its own during the final session of the week with all eleven sectors recording convincing wins.  Volatility continued its contraction path lower by ending below $22 in the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) after an impressive 7th straight declining session.  Asian markets picked up where U.S. Exchanges left off with strong gains notched across the board to start out the week.  Both the Nikkei and Shanghai managed to reverse back above key levels of 2000 and 2500 respectively over the course of the day with renewed optimism surrounding preliminary trade talks which began today ignoring a weak PMI number out of Tokyo.  Europe can’t make the same claim, as earlier gains have since given way to weakness amid yet another looming deadline for a monumental Brexit vote scheduled for mid-January as disarray prevails at the moment. 

 

Oil prices (/CL) appear destined for a 5th straight day of gains today with another 2% jump occurring ahead of the open as crude creeps closer to $50 a barrel.  Gold Futures (/GC) are also seeing modest gains with the precious metal attempting to break back above $1300 an ounce for the first time since June with its latest resurgence.  The ongoing government shutdown continues to wreak havoc on economic data as many critical releases will likely be postponed again this week.  ISM Non-Manufacturing Data will be shared just after the open this morning with a reading of 59.6 expected after three straight months north of 60.  Factory orders will be delayed.  Fed speak will be predominant all week around Wednesday’s release of December’s FOMC meeting minutes which are expected to give investors more clarity into the mind of the committee as it pertains to the future structure of rate hikes.  The 10 year yield is holding steady near 2.646% ahead of some auction activity. 

 

This week will feature the likes of CES as major tech companies convene together to showcase their latest advances which may bring added attention to the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) with many participants included which subsequently closed at 6738 on Friday.  J.P. Morgan’s Healthcare Conference will also kick off this week which may draw further attention with some pivotal announcements commonplace during the event traditionally. 

 

Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

 

Monday:

A.M. – CMC

P.M. – N/A

 

Tuesday:

A.M. – N/A

P.M. – SGH

 

Wednesday

A.M. – LEN, STZ

P.M. – BBBY, KBH

 

Thursday:

A.M. – DAL

P.M. – N/A

 

Friday:

A.M. –N/A

P.M. – N/A

 

Economic Releases (1/7-1/11):

 

Monday:

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders (Postponed)

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX

11:40 am CT – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

 

Tuesday:

8-Week Bill Settlement

5:00 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

7:30 am CT – International Trade

7:55 am CT – Redbook

9:00 am CT -  JOLTS

10:00 am CT – 4-Week Bill and 8-Week Bill Announcement

12:00 pm CT – 3-Yr Note Auction

2:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit

 

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT - MBA Mortgage Applications

7:20 am CT – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

8:00 am CT – FOMC Member Evans Speaks

9:30 am CT - EIA Petroleum Status Report

10:30 am CT – FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 10-Yr Note Auction

1:00 CT – FOMC Minutes

 

Thursday:

7:30 am CT – Jobless Claims

7:35 am CT – FOMC Member Barkin Speaks

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

9:30 am CT – EIA Natural Gas Report

10:00 am CT -- 10-Yr TIPS Announcement

10:30 am CT – 4- Week and 8-Week Bill Auction

11:30 am CT – FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

12:00 pm CT – FOMC Member Evans Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 30-Yr Bond Auction

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply

 

Friday:

2-Yr FRN Note Settlement

7:30 am CT – CPI

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget