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Jun 25, 2019 - Market Blog

6/25/2019

 

Great Expectations??

 

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Equities

 

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are taking a little breather this morning with modest losses registering ahead of the opening bell near 2950.  President Trump applied more pressure to Iran yesterday by imposing greater sanctions in retaliation to their latest attacks which have some investors worried over the lack of negotiation.  Expectations for a final resolution with China have also begun to be downplayed by the administration after claiming that the President would be happy with “any outcome” later this week at the heavily touted G-20 summit. Today’s tone will likely be cemented by remarks from Fed Chairman Powell mid-day as expectations for a rate cut in July reach a fever pitch.  Any deviance from the standard may easily cause a stir with other Fed influencers also lined up to speak.  The week started out strong, but gave way to some weakness as yesterday’s session progressed to see the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) fade into red which has spilled over in both Europe and Asia. The Dow Jones ($DJI) managed to barely hang on to a fractional gain.  Overall, volatility remains unfettered for a 2nd straight session with a reading near the 15 level currently in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) ahead of the summit. 

 

Credit Markets:

The yield on the 10 year currently rests at 2.02% after breaching below the pivotal 2% level overnight.  Bond traders will likely be acutely aware of comments coming from various Fed officials today to better gauge the reality of a rate cut on the horizon which could drive yields even lower. A $40 billion auction in 2-year notes is also slated for later this morning. 

 

Commodities:

Gold Futures (/GC) are up another 14 points at the time of this writing near $1432 an ounce which is good enough for six-year highs as both monetary and political uncertainty fuels bullish sentiment.  Oil futures (/CL) appear quite comfortable near the $58 a barrel mark likely in a holding pattern into the momentous meeting this week.

 

Pre-Market:

 

Home sales are expected near an annual pace of 680K for the month of May which is a slight uptick from the month previous despite the Case Shiller Index just signaling further slowdown in home values across 20 metropolitan areas. Manufacturing data from the Richmond Fed is targeting a reading near 4 in the month of June which would equate to a full point drop from May’s comparable figure. Consumer Sentiment will be one of the most vital readings today just after the open with a 132 point forecast for the survey inching down from its previous assessment  to translate how consumers are faring in current economic conditions.  A blockbuster deal to buy Botox-maker, Allergan (AGN) for a price tag of $63 billion just announced by Abbvie has created somewhat of a buzz within the healthcare space considering the size and implications. 

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

7:45 am CT – FOMC member Williams speaks

7:55 am CT – Redbook

8:00 am CT – S&P Core-logic Case-Shiller HPI

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

11:00 am CT – FOMC member Bostic speaks

12:00 pm CT – FOMC Chair Powell speaks

5:30 pm CT – FOMC member Bullard speaks

 

Notable Earnings:

 

Tuesday– 6/25:

A.M. – N/A

P.M. – FDX, MU

 

Wednesday– 6/26:

A.M. – BB

P.M. – RAD

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Jun 24, 2019 - The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead 

 

Stocks moved higher last week after positive trade developments and the Federal Reserve’s indication that they would step in and lower rates if the economy falters.  The positive vibes got started on Tuesday when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi indicated that the bank could initiate fresh stimulus as early as their next policy meeting in July.  Later that same day, President Trump indicated that trade talks had taken a positive turn and the U.S. and China would be meeting at the upcoming G20 meeting.  On Wednesday, the Fed wrapped up their latest two day meeting by leaving interest rates unchanged and signaled that they would be open to lowering rates if the economic climate did not improve.  It was not too long ago that the central bank was more inclined toward raising rates, but that was before the trade tariffs began to take hold.  On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) fell 0.1% to 26719.37, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 0.2% to 8031.71, and the S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 0.1% to 2950.46.  All three of the major indices gained at least 2.2% for the week, with the S&P 500 making its first record close since April.

 

Following the Fed meeting, the yield on the 10-year Treasury, continued moving lower, and hit 2.0% for the first time since 2016.  U.S. Crude Oil futures (/CL) moved 0.6% higher on Friday to $57.43 per barrel, which marked an 8.8% gain for the week.  This was its largest one week, percentage gain since December 2016.   Tensions with Iran helped send Gold to its highest level in more than five years.  Gold futures (/GC) rose 0.2% on Friday to $1,396.20 a troy ounce.

 

This week there will be a few notable economic figures being released.  Home sales and price data will be released on Tuesday, with Durable goods and Wholesale inventories on Wednesday.  On the earnings front,  FedEx (FDX) and  Micron (MU) will be releasing results on Tuesday afternoon, and Nike (NKE) on Thursday afternoon.

 

Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

 

Monday:

A.M. – N/A

P.M. –  N/A

Tuesday:

A.M.N/A

P.M. – FDX, MU

Wednesday:

A.M. – BB

P.M. – RAD

Thursday:

A.M. – ACN, WBA

P.M. – NKE

Friday:

A.M. – STZ, KHC

P.M. – N/A

Economic Releases (6/24-6/28):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed National Activity Index

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg Survey

Tuesday:

7:45 am CT – FOMC member Williams speaks

7:55 am CT – Redbook

8:00 am CT – S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

11:00 am CT – FOMC member Bostic speaks

5:30 pm CT – FOMC member Bullard speaks

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders

7:30 am CT – International Trade in Goods

7:30 am CT – Retail Inventories (Advance)

7:30 am CT – Wholesale Inventories (Advance)

9:00 am CT – State Street Investor Confidence Index

9:30 am CT – EIA Petroleum Status Report

Thursday:

7:30 am CT – GDP

7:30 am CT – Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Corporate Profits

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index

9:30 am CT – EIA Natural Gas Report

10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

2:00 pm CT – Farm Prices

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet

3:30 pm CT Money Supply

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Personal Income and Outlays

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

 

 *Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

*BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

 

Join the other recipients and help provide some feedback on our daily market blog and Weekend Update by sending an e-mail to support@tradewise.com. Your suggestions are important to us in providing the highest quality service.

Showing Week of Jun 17, 2019

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Jun 21, 2019 - Market Blog

6/21/2019

 

Just another record high

 

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Equities

 

Stocks climbed to new highs Thursday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve suggested it would give in to cut interest rates as soon as next month to keep the U.S.-China trade war from stalling economic growth. The rally comes after trade tensions and uncertainty over central-bank policy rattled investors last month, with stocks posting their worst May since 2010.  The potential for thawing trade relations between Washington and Beijing have helped share prices this month, putting the S&P 500 on pace for its best June since 1955.  All 11 S&P 500 sector indexes logged gains for the session. The technology sector rose 1.43%, with Oracle (ORCL) gaining 8.2% to new highs after the business software maker posted better-then-expected earnings.  The energy index jumped 2.32%, the most of the 11 major S&P sectors, as oil prices surged over 5%. On the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJIA) rose 249 points, or 0.9% to 26753.17, the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 27.78, or 0.95% to 2954.18, topping its April 30th closing high.  The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) also managed to add 64.02 points, or 0.8% to 8051.34.

 

Credit Markets:

U.S. Treasury prices tempered gains Thursday, with the long bond dinged by surging oil and yield gaps widening. The yield on the Treasury’s remain near multi-year lows with the prospect of global rate cuts and ongoing trade and escalating geopolitical concerns lending support. The 30-year yield was little-changed near 2.526% while the 10-year yield slipped to 2.001%, the lowest level since 2016.

 

Commodities:

Oil prices rallied as fears of a U.S. military attack on Iran after it was reported that Iran shot down an unmanned U.S. surveillance drone over the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route through which much of the world’s oil flows.  Iran claimed that the drone was impeding on its territory. Oil futures (/CL) ended the session 5.4% higher at $56.65 a barrel, the highest closing price since May 29 and largest one-day rise since December.  Metal prices shot up Thursday, lifted by a weaker dollar, after the Federal Reserve suggested it was willing to lower rates in coming months.  Gold futures (/GC) rose 3.6% to $1,392.90 an ounce, the biggest one-day advance since June 2016 and its highest settle since 2013 with the $1400 level being pierced early this morning. 

 

Pre-Market:

Wall Street is looking lower in pre-market trading Friday, as futures are edging lower  near double-digits this morning after a major session for Wall Street yesterday that saw the S&P 500 (SPX) surge almost 1% to its first record close since April.  Iran could be one of the reasons for the pullback this morning, as it is being reported that President Trump ordered, and then rescinded an airstrike on military installations in the Islamic Republic in retaliation.  On the data front, investors will be keeping a close eye on June manufacturing services PMI, which will be released at 8:45 am CT, as well as existing home sales for May due at 10:00 am CT. As of this writing, U.S. crude oil futures (/CL) are adding to yesterday’s massive 6.0% jump, trading up 0.04% near $57.30 a barrel, while the S&P futures (/ES) are trading 0.2% lower near 2950.

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

8:45 am CT – PMI Composite FLASH

 

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

 

11:00 am CT – FOMC member Brainard Speaks

 

11:00 am CT – FOMC member Mester Speaks

 

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

 

Notable Earnings:

Friday– 6/21:

A.M. – KMX

P.M. – N/A

 

Monday – 6/24:

A.M. – N/A

P.M. – N/A

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Jun 20, 2019 - Market Blog

6/20/2019

 

For the Record……

 

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Equities

 

U.S. equities (/ES) are staging a sold 1% rally in a clear attempt to shatter all-time highs at some point today after the Federal Reserve opened the door with a rate cut now all but certain.  Markets are currently pricing in a 90% likelihood of a cut coming in next month’s meeting as more voting members than expected cited concerns over the economy to lean towards action. The prospects of headway on the trade front with China have also improved dramatically as of late with a key meeting between Presidents scheduled for next week to hopefully end the escalation of all the problematic tariff talk with rhetoric muted for now. The risk gauge (VIX) dropped all the way back near the 13 level yesterday as little concern remains on the horizon to impede the long-winded equity rally into new highs. Global markets are all rallying in tandem as lingering obstacles continue to dissipate to improve the overall sentiment despite further conflict with Iran. 

 

Credit Markets:

 

The 10-year yield (TNX) briefly broke below the 2% threshold for the first time in nearly 3 years overnight based on the assumption that easy monetary policy is here to stay for the foreseeable future. The bank of Japan just announced their intentions of keeping rates unchanged for now with the possibility of adding more stimulus when needed which also helped to fuel debt prices higher. 

 

Commodities:

Gold Futures (/GC) just captured a five year high at $1397 as the demand for the precious metal is rising in opposition towards the renewed weakness in the greenback. Crude futures (/CL) are seeing a welcomed surge of 3% this morning after Wednesday’s surprise 3.1 Million barrel contraction in weekly inventory levels came last week along with the hope of a renewed global economic expansion. 

 

Pre-Market:

 

Unemployment claims just came in lighter than expected at 216K over last week which was a huge relief after the May jobs snag rattled investors. Key numbers to look for in today’s session include: the S&P 500 (SPX) 2954 level which was reached on April 30th, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) captured 8176 at its high water mark just a day prior, and the record for the Dow Jones ($DJI) which was set late last year at 26,951. 

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

7:30 am CT – Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

7:30 am CT – Current Account

9:00 am CT – Leading Indicators

9:30 am CT – EIA Natural Gas Report

12:00 pm CT – 5-Yr TIPS Auction

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet

3:30 pm CT  Money Supply

 

Notable Earnings:

Thursday– 6/21:

A.M. –  DRI, KR

P.M. – CGC, KFZY, RHT

 

Friday– 6/22:

A.M. – KMX

P.M. – N/A

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Jun 19, 2019 - Market Blog

6/19/2019

 

When the Rubber Meets the Road

 

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Equities

Optimism over trade talks with China, helped send equities higher for the second day ahead of today’s all important Fed meeting.  Stocks started the day on a positive note after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi made dovish comments, and added that the bank could add fresh stimulus by their next meeting in July.  Many feel that Draghi’s dovishness may help coax the Fed to make a cut.  Equities jumped higher after President Trump tweeted that he had a  “very good telephone conversation” with Chinese President Xi, and they would meet in Japan later this month.  This sent technology and industrial stocks higher as they have significant Chinese exposure. In the technology space, Intel (INTC) gained 2.7% to $47.37, while Apple (AAPL) rose 2.4% to $198.45.  The heavy machinery giant, Caterpillar (CAT) added 2.4% to $130.33.  On the day, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 1.4% to 7953.88, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) gained 1.4% to 26465.54, and the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1% to 2917.75.

 

Credit Markets:

European debt yields took a hit after Euro Central Bank President Draghi signaled the bank could implement fresh stimulus as soon as their next meeting in July.  The benchmark German 10yr. bond yield fell to negative 0.320%.  Nothing like paying the government to hold your money. The yield on the U.S.10yr. Treasury note (TNX) settled at 2.060%, its lowest level since September 2017.   

 

Commodities:

Yesterday’s, easing of trade tensions sent U.S. crude oil futures (/CL) 3.8% higher to $53.90 a barrel.  This marked the commodity’s largest one day gain since January.  In addition, Saudi Arabia is cutting its oil output, and is asking other oil producing countries to limit production, as they feel flagging global demand for crude outweighs the threat of conflict and supply disruptions in the Middle East.

 

Pre-Market:

All eyes will be on the Fed when they conclude their two day meeting with their announcement on interest rates at 1:00pm CT.  As of yesterday, the Federal funds futures market was indicating an 85% chance of a rate cut in July.  Prior to the Fed, energy traders will be paying attention to the EIA’s weekly oil inventory number due out at 9:30 CT. As of this writing, U.S. crude oil futures (/CL) are down 0.3% near $53.90 and S&P 500 futures (/ES) are unchanged  near 2926.

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

9:30 am CT – EIA Petroleum Status Report

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Forecasts

1:30 pm CT – Fed Chair Press Conference

 

Notable Earnings:

  

Wednesday – 6/19:

A.M. – WGO  

P.M. – ORCL

 

Thursday – 6/20

A.M. – DRI, KR

P.M. – CGC, KFZY, RHT

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Jun 18, 2019 - Market Blog

6/18/2019

 

Will they or won’t they cut?

 

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Equities

Stocks rose slightly on Monday, led by gains in tech as investors looked ahead to a crucial Federal Reserve meeting this week.  Today, the Fed is scheduled to start a two-day monetary policy meeting.  The markets are pricing more than two interest cuts this year on fears of  fallout from global tension and an economic slowdown.  Shares of Facebook (FB) closed 4% higher as interest grew around its reported cryptocurrency offering, Libra coin set to debut this week.  Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) advanced 3.2% and 0.9% respectively, helping the rally.  On the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJIA) rose 22.37 points, or 0.09% to 26111.98, the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 2.58 points, or 0.09% to 2889.56 and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) added 48.37 points, or 0.6% to 7845.02.

Credit Markets:

Treasury prices rose Monday in choppy trading, lifted by softer-than-expected U.S. economic data and persistent pressure from the trade with conflict with China, as investors brace for this week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy.  The New York Fed’s business index showed a record fall this month to its weakest level in more than 2 years, prompting a rise in Treasury prices.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.085% from 2.094%.

 

Commodities:

Oil prices fell as worries of a reduction in global demand outweighed continued geopolitical uncertainty over two tankers that were allegedly attacked last week by Iran.  Oil futures (/CL) closed the day down 1% to $51.93 a barrel.

 

Pre-Market:

Wall Street is looking up in pre-market trading Tuesday, as futures are edging higher this morning ahead of the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting.  The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged after the meeting ends on Wednesday.  Investors will be monitoring whether the policymakers will lay the groundwork for rate cuts later this year.  Shares of Boeing (BA) are up more than 2.0% in pre-market trading, after the aerospace giant and Korean Air announced at the Paris Air Show that the airline ordered 20 Boeing 787 Dreamliner passenger jets, and agreed to lease another 10.  This is after Boeing received no new jet orders on the first day of the show.  Facebook (FB) shares are up more than 2% in pre-market after the social-media giant unveiled its cryptocurrency, Libra coin, offering users the ability to make payments on the internet.  As of this writing, U.S. crude oil futures (/CL) are 0.9% higher and trading near $52.60 a barrel,  while the S&P futures (/ES) are trading 0.6% higher near 2914.

 

Major Economic Reports:

FOMC Meeting Begins

 

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

 

7:55 am CT – Redbook

 

12:00 pm CT – 3-Yr Note Auction

 

Notable Earnings:

Tuesday– 6/18:

A.M. – PSN

P.M. – ADBE, CHKE, CO, JBL, LZB

 

Wednesday– 6/19:

A.M. – WGO

P.M. – ORCL

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Jun 17, 2019 - The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead 

 

Equities are starting out the week cautiously optimistic as a healthy dose of monetary policy will be served up from several Central Banks around the globe. Language will matter more than action with a trifecta of  U.S., European, and Asian institutions all expected to portray a dovish tone to keep sentiment strong. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) have enjoyed  4% gains so far in the month of June with the Dow ($DJI) topping both at a jubilant 5% clip to push within 900 points of all-time highs. 

 

The yield on the 10-year Treasury initially moved higher by three basis point which equated to the first advance in a week before quickly retreating off the horrible manufacturing number.  Oil prices (/CL) are nudging lower again this morning near $52 as further evidence of a global slowdown puts added pressure on energy amid the never-ending trade impasse. Soy beans (/ZS) have gained nearly 2% a bushel near $910 which is the highest level in two months and six straight daily advances.  Wet weather continues to plague planting conditions in much of the Midwest. 

 

Data will be somewhat constrained early in the week with just the Empire State manufacturing being shared pre-market.  Unfortunately, a twenty-six point drop was enough to register as the largest monthly decline on record just moments ago. The NAHB Housing Market Index will be looking for a target of 67 just after the open which would be enough to reach its highest level since October of last year. Tomorrow will see more housing data just ahead of the FOMC meeting with Wednesday likely being dominated by the Fed Decision and following Press Conference.  The week will conclude with results from bank stress tests to determine the overall durability of some of the largest institutions at a key time where a disconnect is occurring between equity prices and general economic conditions.  Earnings will remain in check with just a select number of recognizable companies sharing results this week including: Adobe (ADBE), Oracle (ORCL) and CarMax (KMX) being the most influential. 

 

 

Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

 

Monday:

A.M– N/A

P.M. –  N/A

 

Tuesday:

A.M.– N/A

P.M.  ADBE, JBL, LZB

 

Wednesday:

A.M. – WGO  

P.M. – ORCL

 

Thursday:

A.M. – DRI, KR

P.M. – CGC, KFZY, RHT

 

Friday:

A.M. – KMX

P.M. – N/A

 

Economic Releases (6/17-6/21):

 

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg Survey

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

3:00 pm CT – Treasury International Capital

 

Tuesday:

FOMC Meeting Begins

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

7:55 am CT – Redbook

12:00 pm CT – 3-Yr Note Auction

 

 Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

9:30 am CT – EIA Petroleum Status Report

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Forecasts

1:30 pm CT – Fed Chair Press Conference

 

Thursday:

7:30 am CT – Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

7:30 am CT – Current Account

9:00 am CT – Leading Indicators

9:30 am CT – EIA Natural Gas Report

10:00 am CT – 2-Yr Note, 5-Yr Note, 7-Yr  Note Announcement

12:00 pm CT – 5-Yr TIPS Auction

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet

3:30 pm CT Money Supply

 

 Friday:

8:45 am CT – PMI Composite FLASH

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

11:00 am CT – FOMC member Brainard Speaks

11:00 am CT – FOMC member Mester Speaks

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

 

 *Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

*BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

 

Join the other recipients and help provide some feedback on our daily market blog and Weekend Update by sending an e-mail to support@tradewise.com. Your suggestions are important to us in providing the highest quality service.