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Jul 21, 2017 - Market Blog

7/21/2017

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The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) posted its first 10-day winning streak since February of 2015 on Thursday as the sector led gains. Stocks once again bounced off of morning lows to settle near record highs. Special counsel Robert Mueller is looking into business dealings of Trump and his administration, which put early pressure on equities that was quickly bought. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower following the latest round of earnings reports. Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results, about 75% have beat both EPS and top-line revenue estimates. Oil prices (/CL) are slightly lower after a report showed higher production from OPEC.  Crude hit new 6-week highs yesterday but remains in a tight range. 

 

Treasury yields have slid lower amid bullish momentum in Bonds. The 10-year Treasury dropped over 2 bps to a 2.235% low, but has drifted up to 2.245%.  Helping underpin global bonds has been the lack of signals from the ECB and BoJ that they are headed to the QE exit anytime soon, while slowing inflation has supported too. Overseas, stocks are in the red and trending lower today. Meanwhile, the stronger EUR, hitting a new 23-month high versus USD, has weighed on European markets. Today's U.S. calendar features a number of earnings reports but there is no data or Fedspeak due. 

 

Stock Stories:

Microsoft (MSFT) – Earnings beat – The tech company reported another strong earnings report after the close as its cloud business drove results. The stock hit all-time highs after the report but have pulled back to the $75 level ahead of Wall Street’s open.   

 

General Electric (GE) – Trending! – The multinational posted a great quarter this morning as EPS and Revenue both beat expectations. The shares have plunged 15% this year as management continues to fumble the ball. A new CEO and a lower dollar should stabilize the stock but clarity will come from the conference call.

 

Major Economic Reports:

12:00 pm CT – Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 7/21:   

Before Market:   CL, FITB, GE, HON, MCO, RF, SLB, SYF, VOD

After Market:  N/A   

 

Monday – 7/24:

Before Market:  CALM, HAL, HAS, ITW, VFC

After Market: GOOG/GOOGL, APC, RMBS

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60  days each: Use coupon code  Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.comor contact us at support@tradewise.com

 

**Watch and listen to the TradeWise team every Thursday from 12:30-1:30 CT in the Swim LessonsSM chat room on the thinkorswim® by TD Ameritrade Trading Platform**

                                  

Join the other recipients and help provide some feedback on our daily market blog by sending an e-mail to support@tradewise.com.  Your suggestions are important to us in providing the highest quality service.

Jul 20, 2017 - Market Blog

7/20/2017

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The summer rally in stocks continued yesterday as the S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Industrials (DIA) and small caps (IWM) settled at all-time highs on Wednesday. Positive Corporate earnings have supported gains for equities and are pushing back against traders that believe markets are frothy. Money flow into ETF’s is helping support the record highs and easy monetary policy has created more optimism. Any news on tax reform would also help push stocks far above moving averages. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly higher following the latest round of earnings reports. The market begins the day with new highs and will be looking to extend its most recent rally. In addition to earnings, investors will be watching reaction the European Central Bank (ECB) comments, which are due this morning. Oil prices (/CL) are slightly higher and also helping equity prices. Crude hit new 6-week highs today and will attempt to hold recent gains into the end of the week. 

 

U.S. Yields crept slightly higher amid positioning before the ECB policy announcement but have since faded after the report. There's some worry that Draghi won’t be as dovish as hoped. Gains in equities have also weighed slightly on bonds. Stocks got a lift overnight after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) met expectations with a steady policy stance, but gains have been pared heading into the U.S. open. Today's U.S. docket is loaded with data and events. The July Philly Fed index highlights the economic calendar, along with weekly jobless claims and June leading indicators. The Treasury auctions $13 B in 10-year TIPS and announces 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes and Fedspeak has gone dark ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. The earnings calendar is heavy with Microsoft (MSFT), Visa (V), various other financials, Philip Morris (PM), and Ebay (EBAY).

 

Stock Stories:

Microsoft (MSFT) – Earnings due – The tech company reports earnings after the close and expectations are high as the shares are at all-time highs. The cloud computing business is growing and management is executing their plan well. The option market is pricing in a +/- move of 3.5% for the shares, which is well below its 2-year quarterly average of 5%.   

 

Chipotle (CMG) – Bad News! – The fast casual Mexican food chain continues to run into headlines that are negatively effecting the shares. Another report from Dallas stated that mice fell from the ceiling in one of its restaurants. The shares have been under pressure and its most likely it will continue to suffer losses after the latest report.

 

Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

 

Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 7/20:   

Before Market:   ABT, BK, BBT, BX, CHKP, DHR, GPC, KEY, NUE, PM, PPG, SAP, SHW, TRV, UL, UNP

After Market:  ATHN, COF, CTAS, EBAY, ISRG, MSFT, NCR, V

 

Friday – 7/21:

Before Market: CL, FITB, GE, HON, MCO, RF, SLB, SYF, VOD

After Market: N/A

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60  days each: Use coupon code  Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.comor contact us at support@tradewise.com

 

**Watch and listen to the TradeWise team every Thursday from 12:30-1:30 CT in the Swim LessonsSM chat room on the thinkorswim® by TD Ameritrade Trading Platform**

                                  

Join the other recipients and help provide some feedback on our daily market blog by sending an e-mail to support@tradewise.com.  Your suggestions are important to us in providing the highest quality service.

Jul 19, 2017 - Market Blog

7/19/2017

*Volatility Bottoming?!  Option Trade Ideas for your Inbox!  Get 2 Free Strategies for 60 days  - email support@tradewise.com or call 877.733.6786*

 

U.S. stocks saw another choppy session on Tuesday as investors parsed through more earnings. Overall, earnings have been showing strong numbers and may continue to propel equity markets as they sit at or near all-time highs. News out of Washington will keep traders focused on the healthcare bill and the struggle will likely push back the tax reform plan. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat as investors sift through the latest round of earnings reports. Shares of IBM are down 3% after Big Blue missed consensus revenue estimates once again and it is expected to put pressure on the Dow Industrials (DIA). The macro news was quiet overnight and today's focus will be on the housing starts and building permits data along with the weekly Department of Energy inventory numbers. Oil prices are slightly higher in advance of the release of the data. Oil prices (/CL) are up slightly ahead of the open and settled right at an inflection point at its 50-day moving average. 

 

Treasuries are a little weaker, along with Japan Bonds, while core European sovereigns are modestly firmer on light volume. The 10-year Treasury yield inched up to 2.27%, while the German Bund rate has dipped to an earlier low of 0.535%. Expectations for no change at tomorrow's ECB meeting supported Bonds, though there is speculation officials are preparing for a taper. Overseas, equities are trading in the green led by a rebound in China’s Shanghai, which finished up 1.42%. Domestically, U.S. earnings will be a focal point with a heavy slate due. The markets also will continue to focus on the Trump agenda after yesterday's failed vote on ACA. Also this morning, the MBA reported mortgage applications rose 6.3% in the July 14 week.

 

Stock Stories:

Qualcomm (QCOM) – Earnings due – The tech company reports earnings after the close and expectations are mixed. The company is still dealing with legal issues on pricing and we should get more clarity on its battle with Apple (AAPL) on the call. The option market is pricing in a +/- move of 4.5% for the shares, which is just below its 2-year quarterly average of 5%.   

 

Morgan Stanley (MS) – Earnings beat! – The investment bank soundly beat quarterly expectations this morning as EPS and revenue were above estimates. The company also announced a $5B share buyback and raised its Dividend by $0.05 a quarter. Investors are cheering the news as the shares are up over 2% in the premarket.

 

Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

 

Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 7/19:   

Before Market:   MTB, MS, NTRS, TXT, USB, GWW 

After Market:  AA, AXP, CP, CCK, QCOM, TMUS, URI

 

Thursday – 7/20:

Before Market:  ABT, BK, BBT, BX, CHKP, DHR, GPC, KEY, NUE, PM, PPG, SAP, SHW, TRV, UL, UNP

After Market: ATHN, COF, CTAS, EBAY, ISRG, MSFT, NCR, V

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60  days each: Use coupon code  Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.comor contact us at support@tradewise.com

 

**Watch and listen to the TradeWise team every Thursday from 12:30-1:30 CT in the Swim LessonsSM chat room on the thinkorswim® by TD Ameritrade Trading Platform**

                                  

Join the other recipients and help provide some feedback on our daily market blog by sending an e-mail to support@tradewise.com.  Your suggestions are important to us in providing the highest quality service.

Jul 18, 2017 - Market Blog

7/18/2017

*Earnings Due!  Option Trade Ideas for your Inbox!  Get 2 Free Strategies for 60 days  - email support@tradewise.com or call 877.733.6786*

 

U.S. stocks chopped near unchanged for most of Monday’s session as investors geared up for earnings later in the week. Overall earnings are expected to grow by over 6% this quarter after a blowout first three months of 2017. Traders are optimistic as stocks have been driven up to record levels and many are expecting another broad-based beat of corporate expectations. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower amid the release of several bellwether earnings reports. In all, nine Dow components will release earnings this week, with several - UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Goldman Sachs (GS) - having already reported this morning. Last night, Netflix (NFLX) kicked off the week's reporting with solid numbers, keeping investors optimistic about the upcoming data. Oil prices (/CL) are up about 1.5% ahead of the Wall Street open. Crude inventory data after the close and tomorrow morning should give more clarity on inventories and pricing this week. 

 

Bond prices extended gains following surprise declines in U.K. CPI and German consumer confidence. The German Bund and U.S. Treasury yields are nearly 2 bps lower at 0.56% and 2.29%, respectively. Stocks are mostly lower overseas, though the FTSE has reversed course and has edged higher as the pound has fallen. Germany’s DAX is the big loser as its down over 1% ahead of the U.S. opening bell. Wall Street remains anxious over Senate healthcare reform where it looks as though there aren't enough votes to get it passed. Today's U.S. session will center on earnings with several core companies reporting. Data includes June trade prices, the July NAHB housing market index and weekly chain store sales, along with May Treasury TIC flows. There is no Fedspeak scheduled and it will go dark ahead of the July 25, 26 FOMC meeting.

 

Stock Stories:

Netflix (NFLX) – Cash Burn! – The online streaming company posted a blowout quarter yesterday after the close as they saw subscriber growth soundly beat expectations. The company is still burning through cash at a record pace but investors looked past this metric and focused on new clients overseas. NFLX shares are up over 9% ahead of the opening bell as a short squeeze is helping push the stock up.   

 

Goldman Sachs (GS) – Earnings beat! – The investment bank soundly beat quarterly expectations this morning as EPS and revenue were above estimates. The CEO stated “A mixed operating environment persisted into the second quarter as conditions continued to support underwriting and M&A, while constraining certain market-making activity. Against that backdrop, we produced revenue growth and improved profitability for the first half of 2017, reflecting both the diversity and strength of our global businesses.” Despite the beat, the shares are taking a cue from earlier banking results and are actually falling slightly in the premarket.

 

Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Import And Export Prices
9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

3:00 pm CT – Treasury International Capital

 

Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 7/18:   

Before Market:   AMTD, BAC,CMA, GS, HOG, JNJ, LMT, NVS, PGR, UNH

After Market:  CSX, IBM, UAL, WTFC

 

Wednesday – 7/19:

Before Market:  MTB, MS, NTRS, TXT, USB, GWW

After Market: AA, AXP, CP, CCK, QCOM, TMUS, URI

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60  days each: Use coupon code  Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.comor contact us at support@tradewise.com

 

**Watch and listen to the TradeWise team every Thursday from 12:30-1:30 CT in the Swim LessonsSM chat room on the thinkorswim® by TD Ameritrade Trading Platform**

                                  

Join the other recipients and help provide some feedback on our daily market blog by sending an e-mail to support@tradewise.com.  Your suggestions are important to us in providing the highest quality service.

Jul 17, 2017 - Market Blog

7/17/2017

*Stocks in Rally mode!  Option Trade Ideas for your Inbox!  Get 2 Free Strategies for 60 days  - email support@tradewise.com or call 877.733.6786*

 

U.S. stocks rose again last week with both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Industrials (DIA) settling at all-time highs on Friday. Mediocre economic data seems to have little negative effect on investor sentiment and dovish Yellen testimony last week set the tone for the rally. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading flat to slightly higher on light volumes. Investors are preparing for the second quarter earnings season, which will begin in earnest this week. Some of the most in-focus corporations will be reporting, including Netflix (NFLX), which is scheduled to report after the close. Oil prices (/CL) are slightly lower while a meeting of senior OPEC officials is underway. Crude finished last week with strong gains as inventories fell once again. 

 

Treasury’s are higher and are moving in tandem with stocks ahead of the Wall Street open. The 10-year yield has fallen back to 2.31 % and resistance at 2.4% is still in play. Overseas, China’s Shanghai index dumped 1.42% despite a beat on GDP data. The news comes as investors watch the world’s second largest economy for any weakening in growth on high debt levels. China will also be watched for geopolitical action as the U.S. considers more sanctions against the communist nation. Europe is mostly higher although Germany was down slightly overnight. The second round of Brexit talks began in Brussels and could provide some added volatility to the Eurozone markets in the coming days. Domestically, data is minimal today with only the Empire State Manufacturing survey due. The entire week  is light on economic news so focus will remain on earnings and geopolitical comments.

 

Stock Stories:

Blackrock (BLK) – Earnings Miss! – The world’s largest asset manager posted a miss on both top-line revenue and EPS this morning. Despite inflows hitting a record $94B, the company stated that costs are rising and offsetting the gains in assets. BLK shares are falling in the premarket after hitting all-time highs into the report.   

 

Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

 

Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 7/17:   

Before Market:   BLK

After Market:  NFLX

 

Tuesday – 7/18:

Before Market:  AMTD, BAC,CMA, GS, HOG, JNJ, LMT, NVS, PGR, UNH

After Market: CSX, IBM, UAL, WTFC

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60  days each: Use coupon code  Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.comor contact us at support@tradewise.com

 

**Watch and listen to the TradeWise team every Thursday from 12:30-1:30 CT in the Swim LessonsSM chat room on the thinkorswim® by TD Ameritrade Trading Platform**

                                  

Join the other recipients and help provide some feedback on our daily market blog by sending an e-mail to support@tradewise.com.  Your suggestions are important to us in providing the highest quality service.

Showing Week of Jul 10, 2017

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Jul 16, 2017 - Weekend Market Update

TradeWise – Weekend Update

July 16, 2017

 

Despite the lagging economic data posted this past week, U.S. stocks saw solid gains. Optimism is high for investors as they expect another blowout earnings season to drive equities. JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) all posted better than expected quarterly results on Friday morning but they were the only sector that fell on their weak guidance. Modest inflation and weak retail sales data were no match for stocks and Fed Chair Yellen backtracked to a more Dovish tone during her testimony this past week to Congress. Her comments pointed to gradual rate hikes, which sent the Dow Industrials to another record close on Friday. The week is perhaps best summed up by the Fed's own Beige Book which downgraded the general assessment of economic strength from modest-to-moderate to slight-to-moderate. The Beige Book does warn of tight conditions in the labor market but its assessment of ongoing wage gains is flat while its assessment of general inflation is soft. The second quarter was supposed to show stronger growth after the first quarter's slowdown, but it isn’t shaping up that way.  For the week, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished up a solid 1.4% while the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) rose 1.0%.  The Nasdaq (QQQ) led the way for stocks finishing up 3.1% while the small caps (IWM) rose only 0.8%.

Oil (/CL) was another bright spot this past week rising 5.3% on lower inventory data. Crude looks as if it found support near $43 a barrel and is now at $46.68 and is hitting resistance at its 50-day moving average. Treasury prices firmed up this past week and reversed from their recent slide.  As Bonds rose, the inverse 10-year yield fell 7 bps to 2.32% and broke its two week rally. Yields are still in a tight range but failed again at resistance near 2.4%. Option volatility fell throughout the week as stocks traded higher. The closely watched CBOE Volatility index (VIX) finished the week at $9.51 and is reflecting the strength in equities. With little economic news due this upcoming week, traders will look for earnings to drive stocks and keep a lid on uncertainty.  

Earnings season begins in earnest this week as financials and blue chips are set to report. Economic data is minimal this week with only a few key releases due. With consumer weakness a concern, strength in the housing sector is more important than ever for the economy. Home builders have been very optimistic and have been keeping the housing market index at elevated levels, levels however that have not been matched by housing starts and permits which have been sagging. The home builders report will come out on Tuesday followed by starts on Wednesday with updates on the factory sector coming out on Monday, with Empire State, and Thursday with the Philly Fed. Inflation, which proved very weak in June, will be revisited with import & export prices due on Tuesday.  


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. –  BLK

P.M. NFLX

 

Tuesday:

A.M.BAC, CMA, GS, HOG, JNJ, LMT, NVS, PGR, AMTD, UNH

P.M.– CSX, IBM, UAL, WTFC

 

Wednesday:

A.M. – MTB, MS, NTRS, TXT, USB, GWW

P.M. –AA, AXP, CP, CCK, QCOM, TMUS, URI

 

Thursday:

A.M. –ABT, BK, BBT, BX, CHKP, DHR, GPC, KEY, NUE, PM, PPG, SAP, SHW, TRV, UL, UNP

P.M. –ATHN, COF, CTAS, EBAY, ISRG, MSFT, NCR, V

 

Friday:

A.M.CL, FITB, GE, HON, MCO, RF, SLB, SYF, VOD

 

Economic Releases (7/17– 7/21):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

                                                                                                                                                                          

Tuesday:

7:30 am CT – Import And Export Prices
9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

3:00 pm CT – Treasury International Capital

 

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

 

Thursday:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

 

Friday:

12:00 pm CT – Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

*BOLDabove indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

                                                   

TradeWise is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code  marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com  or contact us at support@tradewise.com

 

Join the other recipients and help provide some feedback on our daily market blog and Weekend Update by sending an e-mail to support@tradewise.com.  Your suggestions are important to us in providing the highest quality service.

Jul 14, 2017 - Market Blog

7/14/2017

 

*Financials Friday!  Option Trade Ideas for your Inbox!  Get 2 Free Strategies for 60 days  - email support@tradewise.com or call 877.733.6786*

 

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are fairly stagnant this morning as investors eagerly await the quarterly results of some of the nation’s largest banking institutions.  Financials have been on a rampage since the beginning of June, but earnings may act as a major hurdle with many taking pause right at highs.  FOMC Chair Yellen survived her two grueling days on Capitol Hill unscathed as she was continually interrogated over the state of the economy.  The lack of inflation continues to be problematic which has shifted sentiment to a more dovish stance. U.S. 10-year Treasuries have reacted accordingly with a minor drop in yield to 2.335% which is on pace to put the govt. benchmark in a winning weekly position for the first time in nearly a month.    

 

The Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) logged its 24th record close yesterday at 21,553 with optimism ahead of banking results which spilled over to both Asia and Europe-all seeing a healthy close for the week.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) tacked on 13 points Thursday to register its fifth straight winning session in a row. Volatility remains at bay with the barometer-CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closing right at the $10 handle for the 2nd straight session.  Energy futures (/CL) will try to hold onto its impressive 5% gain over the last 5 sessions as the commodity is trading at weekly highs near $46.60 a barrel despite concerns over supply fatigue with a pivotal rig count coming out later today. 

 

Today will showcase several key data points before the week is complete including: CPI and Retails Sales.  Both vital reports have missed estimates for several consecutive months now so the market will be looking for either to extend above the trivial .1% growth estimate to indicate any meaningful pickup in economic drivers.  Retail has remained in a fragile state with several brick and mortar stores struggling to compete with advantaged online competitors. The sector did get some help from Target (TGT) yesterday after they raised their 2nd quarter outlook to hopefully reverse the negative trend for much of 2017. The move was enough to see the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) log its best intra-day gain of the year at 2.3%.   

 

Stock Stories:

Camping World Holdings Inc. (CWH) –Time for Smores!!– The camping retailer continues to form their transition plans after recently acquiring Gander Mountain during bankruptcy proceedings.  They have received multiple upgrades from notable analysts as of late which was enough to send shares nearly 10% higher in yesterday’s trading for a new quarterly high. 

 

Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

8:30 am CT – Fed’s Kaplan Speaks

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

12:00 pm CT – Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

Notable Earnings:   

 

Friday – 7/14:   

Before MarketC, INFY, JPM, PNC, WFC

After Market:  N/A

 

Monday – 7/17:

Before Market:  BLK

After Market: NFLX

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60  days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.comor contact us at support@tradewise.com

 

**Watch and listen to the TradeWise team every Thursday from 12:30-1:30 CT in the Swim LessonsSM chat room on the thinkorswim® by TD Ameritrade Trading Platform**

                                  

Join the other recipients and help provide some feedback on our daily market blog by sending an e-mail to support@tradewise.com. Your suggestions are important to us in providing the highest quality service.

Jul 13, 2017 - Market Blog

7/13/2017

*Yellen Rally!  Option Trade Ideas for your Inbox!  Get 2 Free Strategies for 60 days  - email support@tradewise.com or call 877.733.6786*

 

U.S. stocks rose sharply on Wednesday as traders digested testimony for Fed Chair Yellen to the House of Representatives. The Dow Industrials hit a record intraday high before falling slightly and settling at another closing high. Yellen stated the Fed will likely start reducing its massive $4.5 trillion portfolio at some point later this year. She was definitely more dovish in her statement, which investors took as a reason to push into stocks again. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly higher, building on yesterday's gains. The market's move yesterday was attributed to Janet Yellen dovish commentary while she testified in D.C, which she is set to do again today. Oil prices (/CL) also rallied yesterday amid comments from Saudi Arabia about limiting its oil exports. Despite this, oil output from non-OPEC countries increased in June. Crude finished well off of Wednesday’s highs and are giving up more gains ahead of the Wall Street open. 

 

Bonds along with stocks have pared gains ahead of the U.S. open. Bullish reaction from Chair Yellen's testimony yesterday carried over in Asian action and in early European trade. But it looks as though some profit taking has set in ahead of her testimony to the Senate Banking Committee today. The 10-year yield has risen back to 2.32 % from a low of 2.30% overnight. Core European yields are now slightly higher with the German Bund having edged up to 0.577%. Overseas equities rallied too but have come off their best levels after the Dow hit a record high, helping the MSCI All Country index to a peak too. Chinese exports post an 11.3% y/y gain, which helped the Shanghai index rise 0.67%. Yellen Part II will dominate the headlines today. Data includes weekly initial claims, the June PPI report, the June Treasury budget and the Treasury reopens $12 B in 30-year bonds.

 

Stock Stories:

Boeing (BA) – Flying Too High?! – The aircraft-maker hit another all-time high on Wednesday and the shares are extended on a technical level far above its 50 and 200-day moving averages. The company has gotten a big boost from its services unit and order backlog. Boeing reports earnings on the 26th and expectations are for a blowout quarter.   

 

Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)

8:30 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – Fed’s Brainard Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 30-Year Bond auction

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget

 

Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 7/13:   

Before Market:   DAL

After Market:  N/A

 

Friday – 7/14:

Before Market:  C, INFY, JPM, PNC, WFC

After Market: N/A

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60  days each: Use coupon code  Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.comor contact us at support@tradewise.com

 

**Watch and listen to the TradeWise team every Thursday from 12:30-1:30 CT in the Swim LessonsSM chat room on the thinkorswim® by TD Ameritrade Trading Platform**

                                  

Join the other recipients and help provide some feedback on our daily market blog by sending an e-mail to support@tradewise.com.  Your suggestions are important to us in providing the highest quality service.

Jul 12, 2017 - Market Blog

7/12/2017

 

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U.S. Equities are showing some resolve pre-market ahead of FOMC Chair Yellen’s prepared semi-annual testimony to Congress just after the open which will extend into tomorrow’s session as well.  The beige book will also be released later today to hopefully offer more insight into the short-term plans of the Federal Reserve with one more rate hike projected in 2017.  The rumor mill has begun to speculate if Trump will invite Yellen to a 2nd term which could drastically alter the outlook on an eventual unwinding of the Treasury’s balance sheet if a successor is named in her place. 

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) ended Tuesday right at its 50 day moving average at $10.68 after reversing lower over the previous week. Equity markets were mixed yesterday with The S&P 500 (SPX) closing fractionally lower to end the day at $2425.  The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) enjoyed a 3rd consecutive higher close at $6193 as it attempts to recover from steep losses occurring near the turn of the month. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (RUT) tacked on a modest 5 points in the previous session with some help from the healthcare and tech sectors. 

 

Oil inventories will be released after the open with a -3.2 Million barrel contraction expected over the previous week.  A negative number would be the 4th over the last 5 weeks as domestic production shows some signs of peaking.  OPEC just released monthly production totals early this morning which broke 32.6 million barrels a day in June with several participating countries exceeding quotas.  The cartel also predicted that global demand will begin to slow into next year which only exacerbates the looming oversupply issue.  Gold Futures (/GC) are postured to log a 3rd straight winning session today as perceived Trump headwinds around Russia’s involvement in the election process continue to weaken sentiment around meaningful legislation getting accomplished anytime soon. The U.S. dollar just reached a 14 mo. low against the euro which has negative implications across the globe for many exporting countries should the trend continue.

 

 

Stock Stories:

Fastenal (FAST) –Freaky Fast– The industrial and construction supply distributer revealed a solid quarterly profit this morning of $1.12 billion in revenue.  The company has continued to enjoy the benefits of an extended housing recovery which continues to mature.  Sales jumped over 10% over the last year alone which has catapulted the stock nearly 8% higher pre-market as it attempts to regain highs set in April. 

 

Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

9:00 am CT – Atlanta Fed Business Inflation expectations

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Testifies

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-Year Note auction

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book

1:15 pm CT – Fed’s George Speaks

 

Notable Earnings:   

 

Wednesday – 7/12:   

Before Market:   FAST,MSM

After Market:  N/A

 

Thursday – 7/13:

Before Market:  DAL

After Market: N/A

 

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**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

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Jul 11, 2017 - Market Blog

7/11/2017

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U.S. stocks finished the start to the week on a positive note led by the tech sector. Amazon.com (AMZN) rose 1.8% on the session ahead of last evenings Prime Day, which gives deals for its Prime customers. Although tech has pulled back recently the Nasdaq ETF (QQQ) is still up over 16% in 2017. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower in what may be another dull session. There is little in the way of economic news scheduled for release but investors will be focused in on retailers, especially Amazon.com (AMZN) shares as the company holds its annual Prime Day event. Investors will be watching for tomorrow's update on the sales event while looking ahead to the second quarter earnings season Oil futures (/CL) are down another 1% ahead of the Wall Street open and remain in a consolidating range. Traders will be watching tonight’s API number after the close and tomorrow mornings inventory data to see if crude stockpiles had another drop. 

 

Treasuries are modestly weaker amid a sell-off in most European and Asian bonds. The advent of supply in the U.S. and U.K. was a catalyst to the uptick in yields, although stronger than expected U.K. retail sales and Italian production numbers add to the erosion The 10-year Treasury rose to retest 2.39%, but is trading at 2.38% currently. The U.S. calendar is light and won't generate a lot of interest, especially ahead of Fed chair Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins testimony tomorrow and Thursday. For today, the May JOLTS (job opening) figures are due, along with May wholesale and weekly chain store sales. Fed Governor Brainard speaks on monetary policy from New York. The Treasury auctions $24 B in 3-year notes and the only larger-cap earnings report today comes from PepsiCo (PEP).

 

Stock Stories:

Best Buy (BBY) – Reality sets in – The shares of BBY slipped 6% yesterday after  a report that Amazon has rolled out its own service to compete with the big box store's "Geek Squad" installation and repair service. BBY shares were up an astounding 45% in 2017 at the end of May but have pulled back significantly as the entire retail sector has been under pressure.  Analysts are stating the sell-off is overdone but most big-box retailers are in the process of getting ‘Amazoned’.  

 

Major Economic Reports:

9:00 am CT – JOLTS
9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

11:30 am CT – Fed’s Brainard Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 3-Year Note auction

12:20 pm CT – Fed’s Kashkari Speaks

 

Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 7/11:   

Before Market:   PEP

After Market:  AIR

 

Wednesday – 7/12:

Before Market:  FAST

After Market: N/A

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

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**Watch and listen to the TradeWise team every Thursday from 12:30-1:30 CT in the Swim LessonsSM chat room on the thinkorswim® by TD Ameritrade Trading Platform**

                                  

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Jul 10, 2017 - Market Blog

7/10/2017

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U.S. stocks finished Friday on a positive note and managed to eke out small gains for the week. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are up slightly as the tech-heavy Nasdaq (/NQ) is showing some strength. Oil prices (/CL) have taken another leg lower, with the front-month future presently showing just over a 1% loss, at $43.76,  the lowest level seen since June 28. The oversupply narrative is back in dominance following data last week showing rising production out of the U.S., Nigeria and Libya, which is offsetting OPEC supply trimming efforts. Kuwait said on Sunday that both Nigeria and Libya have been invited to the next OPEC meeting, on July 24. Option Volatility has shown some minor strength recently as choppy equity markets are giving investors concerns.  The closely watched CBOE Volatility index settled at $11.57 on Friday, and economic data and earnings this week may provide a catalyst for some large moves. 

 

Treasury yields have dipped lower, tracking the drop in Eurozone yields. The 10-year yield is trading in a tight range near 2.38% overnight. German Bunds are leading the rally in core sovereigns, with ECB-speak the main catalyst. Officials tried to ease concerns over an imminent tapering, noting the next shift in ECB language may only come in September, and another reiterated again that the inflation goal has yet to be reached. Also, the Bank of Japan's Kuroda added his piece, saying policy will be adjusted as needed. Meanwhile, stocks moved broadly higher, supported by the solid U.S. jobs report, but prices have eased from their highs. The U.S. calendar this week is heavy with Fed chair Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins testimony on Wednesday and Thursday highlighting. Fedspeak and the Beige Book are due too. There's key data on deck too with CPI, retail sales, and industrial production. Supply is on deck this week with $56 B in Treasury offerings. Today's calendar is light, however, and features just May consumer credit and the Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index.

 

Stock Stories:

Apple (AAPL) – Set to bounce?! – The shares of AAPL have pulled back 8% since hitting all-time highs on May 15th but are still up 24% in 2017. While many estimates expect the shares to bounce back, the shares may have already priced in the iPhone 8 cycle. The company reports earnings on August 1st and analysts expect another solid quarter of growth ahead of the new product launch.

 

Major Economic Reports:

9:00 am CT – Labor Market Conditions Index

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX

2:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit

 

Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 7/10:   

Before Market:   N/A

After Market:  N/A

 

Tuesday – 7/11:

Before Market:  PEP

After Market: AIR

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60  days each: Use coupon code  Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.comor contact us at support@tradewise.com

 

**Watch and listen to the TradeWise team every Thursday from 12:30-1:30 CT in the Swim LessonsSM chat room on the thinkorswim® by TD Ameritrade Trading Platform**

                                  

Join the other recipients and help provide some feedback on our daily market blog by sending an e-mail to support@tradewise.com.  Your suggestions are important to us in providing the highest quality service.