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Dec 07, 2018 - Market Blog

12/7/2018

 

Great Job!  

 

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U.S. Equities:

Both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones ($DJI) are tracking for weekly declines near 2.3% which is still a drastic improvement from earlier lows carved out yesterday before a mid-day rally nearly reversed a 700 point plummet in the later. Tech pushed the charge yesterday with a miraculous comeback as many of the FAANG leaders even managed to squeak out modest gains. Volatility retracted from a high watermark of 26 in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to end near the lows of the day just a shade over 21 after welcomed comments surfaced that the Fed may alter their persistence on their rate hike regimen. 

 

Credit Markets:

The 10 year yield (TNX) is hovering near 2.9% to close out the week after a massive downdraft the last four sessions from a distant 3.04%. The upcoming December FOMC meeting just became much more of a coin-toss in regards to a potential rate hike as data becomes mixed and officials more market dependent. 

 

Commodities:

Crude (/CL) futures are jumping nearly 5% at the moment after a painful week as a heated debate in Vienna appears to be coming to a close. A tentative agreement has apparently been reached to cut 1.3 Million barrels a day as Russia gets on board in a desperate attempt to fend off plummeting prices as production has outpaced demand. Gold Futures (/GC) are extending to levels not seen since July near $1249 an ounce.  The precious metal is currently reacting positively to a softer than expected jobs report implying a potentially weaker rate environment to compete with going forward. 

 

Pre-Market:

Today’s jobs report came in lighter than expected at 155K new positions filled for November with the unemployment rate staying unchanged at 3.7%. Hourly earnings jumped moderately by 0.2% which was a narrative that ironically took some pressure off overnight losses on S&P futures (/ES) to turn positive.  Investors are interpreting the data as just soft enough to possibly detract the Fed from raising rates at their sustained pace while still indicating positive momentum in the overall economy.  Consumer sentiment, wholesale trade and more insight into energy  production will all be revealed over the course of the day to wrap up a whirlwind of a week which has reacted fiercely to all the recent fanfare.

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

(All Day)        –  OPEC Meeting

7:30 am CT   – Monthly Employment Report

9:00 am CT   – Consumer Sentiment

9:00 am CT   –   Wholesale Trade

9:30 am CT   –   Natural Gas Storage

11:15 am CT– FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

12:00 pm CT – Baker-Hughes Rig Count

 

Notable Earnings:     

  

Friday– 12/7:

Before Market: N/A

After Market:  N/A

 

Monday – 12/10:

Before Market: N/A

After Market:  SFIX

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Dec 06, 2018 - Market Blog

12/6/2018

 

Arrested Development

 

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After a pause for President Bush’s funeral yesterday, S&P 500 futures (/ES) re-opened yesterday evening sharply lower.  The initial selling was so intense it forced the CME to intermittently pause trading.  The futures traded as low as 2649.75 or 2.5% lower than the previous close.  This followed a 3.2% drop on Tuesday, as investors began to have reservations about the recent  U.S./China trade truce.  Overseas markets were also negative.  The Stoxx 600 Europe 600 dropped 2.2%, its lowest level in almost two years.  In Asia, Japan’s Topix index lost 1.8% while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index had its worst day in a month and a half, falling 1.85%. 

 

The latest development overnight is the is the arrest of Chinese phone maker Huawei CFO in Canada at the request of U.S. authorities related to U.S. sanctions on Iran.  This is overshadowing the apparent words of truce between the U.S. and China.   Crude oil prices are under pressure this morning as skepticism rises about OPEC’s ability to reach a consensus on a production cut as their meeting begins today.     As of this writing,  U.S crude oil futures (/CL) are 2.7% lower near $51.40 per barrel and S&P 500 futures (/ES) are 1.6% lower near 2657.   

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

(All Day)     --    OPEC Meeting

6:30 am CT –   Challenger Job-Cut Report

7:15 am CT --   ADP Employment Report

7:30 am CT –   International Trade

7:30 am CT –   Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT –   Productivity and Costs

8:45 am CT –   PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT –   Factory Orders

9:00 am CT –   ISM Non-Mfg. Index

9:30 am CT-     EIA Natural Gas Report

11:15 am CT – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

3:30 pm CT –   Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply

 

Notable Earnings:       

 

Thursday– 12/06:

Before MarketKR, PLCE, SIG

After Market:    AOBC, AVGO, ULTA, LULU  

 

Friday – 12/07:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:     N/A

 

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Dec 04, 2018 - Market Blog

12/4/2018

 

Treasury Watch Tuesday 

 

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**U.S. Equity Markets will be Closed on Wednesday, Dec 5th in observance of a Day of Remembrance**

 

 

Equities

 

Wall street is seeing yesterday’s optimism being replaced with apprehension as vague details slowly emerge around the prolonged tariff discussions. A 90 day moratorium is apparently in place as the two sides continue to spar over different aspects of a potential treaty remaining elusive at this stage. Yesterday saw both the Dow ($DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) alike progress by 1.1% over the course of the session albeit well off earlier highs. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) saw risk appetite return with a 1.5% windfall in the battered tech sector which has been all but shunned as of late. Asia saw the Japanese Nikkei tumble by 2.5% as a stronger yen acted as a headwind on exports. Mainland China saw better results with nearly a 0.5% advantage coming off the heels of promising trade negotiations. European markets are experiencing some selling pressure with an average 0.5% retreat coming across the board with autos taking the main brunt.  

 

Credit Markets:

 

Yesterday saw a rare phenomenon within the bond markets when the 3 and 5 year note yields inverted for the first time in over a decade. The more closely watched correlation between the 2 and 10 year yields also saw the distance narrow to as little as a 13 point spread after the 10 year broke below the 3% threshold. The inverse relationship tends to be a bellwether to potential recession activity in the foreseeable future and will likely garner more discussion into the end of the year should the trend continue. 

 

Commodities:

 

Gold Futures (/GC) are enjoying a one-month high near $1244 an ounce spurred by a weaker dollar which seems counterintuitive in light of yesterday’s strong equity performance in a show of hesitance around any formal deal being solidified. Energy prices have continued to rebound in a big way with Crude (/CL) jolting another 1.5% this morning now within range of $54 a barrel as further indications of production curbs gain traction into the next OPEC meeting at the tail end of the week. 

 

Pre-Market:

 

U.S. Equity futures (/ES) are presently indicating early losses pre-market as skepticism builds around the efficacy of weekend discussions with China. Wall street will remain shuttered Wednesday with a Day of Remembrance scheduled to take effect.  Almost all economic data with the exception of Mortgage Applications and the Beige book release will be delayed until Thursday as a result. A much-anticipated hearing with FOMC Chair Powell was also cancelled and will need to be rescheduled for a later date. Today's economic calendar will remain extremely light with only a Redbook reading and speaking engagement from Williams expected.  

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

7:55 am CT –  Redbook

9:00 am CT –  FOMC Member Williams Speaks

 

Notable Earnings:       

 

Tuesday– 12/04:

Before Market:  AZO, DG

After Market:    HPE, MRVL, RH, TOL

 

Thursday– 12/06:

Before MarketKR, PLCE, SIG

After Market: AOBC, AVGO, ULTA, LULU  

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Dec 03, 2018 - The Week Ahead

TradeWise – The Week Ahead

December 3,  2018

 

U.S. equities rallied into the close on Friday after gyrating between small gains and losses. Many investors had been waiting on the sidelines, to see how the meeting between the U.S. and China went at the G20 meeting this past weekend.  On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 0.8% to 7330.54, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) climbed 0.8% to 25538.46, and the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 0.8% to 2760.16.  After a volatile month of October, the major indices managed to finish November in the plus column.  For November, the S&P 500 (SPX) climbed 1.8%, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) added 1.7% and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 0.3%.  Many investors flocked to the defensive sectors, with their larger dividend payouts which tend to be a safe haven during volatile times.   One of these sectors,  was real estate.  This group within the S&P 500, rose 5.3% last month, almost triple of the overall SPX.   Last week, the Commerce  Department estimated the U.S. economy grew at a 3.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the third quarter.  This strong growth has not been showing up in other data.  Recent housing reports have been unimpressive, and domestic auto sales are showing signs of sputtering.  One of the worst performing tech companies last month was Apple (AAPL).  The tech giant lost 18% in November, as investors worried about softening demand for the company’s iPhone.

 

Oil Prices (/CL) briefly dipped below $50 on Friday on worries about Russia’s commitment to cut crude production.  U.S. crude oil had their biggest monthly percentage loss since October 2008, plunging 22% in November.  U.S. Treasuries rose on Friday, extending their recent rally and sending the yield on the 10yr. Treasury Note (TNX) closer to 3%.  The yield on the 10yr. note settled at 3.013% on Friday, marking its largest one month decline since August 2017.      

 

The big news over the weekend was the apparent trade truce that was formed between the U.S. and China at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires.  The U.S. has postponed their increase of tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods for 90 days while the two sides negotiate over several issues.  President Trump also tweeted last night that, “China has agreed to reduce tariffs on cars coming into China from the U.S.  Currently the tariff is 40%.”   There is also news out that Qatar is leaving OPEC.  OPEC will be meeting on Thursday and Friday to decide on oil production.  As of this writing,  U.S. Crude oil futures (/CL) are up 4.5% near $53 per barrel.   S&P 500 future (/ES) are 1.5% higher and trading near 2800.

 

 

Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

 

Monday:

A.M. –  FSNR

P.M.–   N/A

 

Tuesday:

A.M.–   AZO, DG

P.M .–  HPE, MRVL, RH, TOL

 

Wednesday:

A.M. –  AEO, MOMO, SODA

P.M. –  FIVE

 

Thursday:

 

A.M.–   KR, PLCE, SIG

P.M. –  AOBC, AVGO, ULTA, LULU

 

Friday:

A.M.–   N/A

P.M. –  N/A

 

Economic Releases (12/3– 12/7):

 

Monday:

8:15 am CT --    FOMC Member John Williams Speaks

8:45 am CT –    PMI Manufacturing Index

9:00 am CT –   ISM Manufacturing Index

9:00 am CT –    Construction Spending

9:30 am CT --    FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

10:30 am CT --  3mo. & 6mo. Bill Auction

 

Tuesday:

7:55 am CT –  Redbook

9:00 am CT –  FOMC Member Williams Speaks

 

Wednesday:

**Markets Closed for Day of Mourning for President Bush**

6:00 am CT –   MBA Mortgage Application

7:15 am CT –   ADP Employment Report

7:30 am CT –   Productivity and Costs

8:45 am CT –   PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT –   ISM Non-Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT –   Quarterly Services Survey

9:15 am CT –   Fed Chair Powell Speaks

9:30 am CT --   EIA Petroleum Status Report

1:00 pm CT --   Beige Book

 

Thursday:

(All Day)     --    OPEC Meeting

6:30 am CT –   Challenger Job-Cut Report

7:30 am CT –   International Trade

7:30 am CT –   Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT –   Factory Orders

9:30 am CT-     EIA Natural Gas Report

11:15 am CT – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

3:30 pm CT –   Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply

 

Friday:

(All Day)       –  OPEC Meeting

7:30 am CT  –  Employment Situation

9:00 am CT  –  Consumer Sentiment

9:00 am CT–    Wholesale Trade

11:15 am CT-   FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

12:00 pm CT    Baker-Hughes Rig Count

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

*BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

                                                   

TradeWise is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

 

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Showing Week of Nov 26, 2018

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Nov 30, 2018 - Market Blog

11/30/2018

 

Meet and Greet

 

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U.S. Equities:

S&P futures (/ES) are showing some jitters again this morning with a double-digit drop setting up ahead of a momentous meeting with many of the world’s top leaders.  Yesterday logged lackluster results with the Dow ($DJI) giving up 27 points during the session to end at 25,338.  The broader S&P 500 (SPX)  suffered a mild 5 point setback by settling at 2,737 with many investors taking an understandable pause.  Overall,  the benchmark will see somewhere near a 4% rise for the week should conditions remain the same which may be just enough to capture a 1% improvement over the volatile month of November. 

 

Credit Markets:

The 10 year Treasury yield has continued to slip off the about-face posture from the Fed now tracing near the 3.01% range with likely activity gearing around the Summit. Yesterday’s release of minutes from the last Fed meeting indicated further uncertainty about the trajectory of rate hikes into next year with the persistant trade war taking its toll. 

 

Energy:

Energy prices have remained under strain near $50 a barrel as discussions will certainly be had among the world’s top producing countries over the weekend in an attempt to find some equilibrium in pricing and production.  Overall,  Crude is pacing for a staggering 22% decline in the month of November as yesterday’s nearly 2% drop added to more uncertainty. Today’s weekly rig count may offer more insight into the risk appetite of producers at these anemic levels as margins shrink dramatically. 

 

Pre-Market:

Economic news will be predominantly quiet today with just a dash of Fed speak from Williams ahead of the open.  Chicago PMI will also come into play with a 58.6 forecast, indicating further expansion albeit at a slower pace than last quarter.  Surprising news out of China indicated that manufacturing stalled out for the first time in that last 24 months as the Purchasing Managers’ Index hit a flat line of 50.  The region took the news in stride as all major indices traded marginally higher in hopes of progress with a trade pact breakthrough over the weekend.  Germany also suffered bad news with retail numbers shrinking for a 4th straight month in the Eurozone’s largest economy after October data was scoured. Europe in general is trading nearly 0.4% lower with the same longstanding concerns over Brexit and Italy continuing to resurface. 

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

(All Day)       –  G-20 Day 1 Meeting

8:00 am CT  –  FOMC Member Williams Speaks

8:45 am CT  –  Chicago PMI

12:00 pm CT–  Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

Notable Earnings:     

  

Friday– 11/30:

Before Market: N/A

After Market:  N/A

 

Monday – 12/3:

Before Market: FNSR

After Market:   N/A

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Nov 29, 2018 - Market Blog

11/29/2018

 

When Doves Fly!

 

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U.S. Equities:

 

U.S. equities surged higher after Fed Chairman Powell spoke positively about the U.S. economy.  Powell’s indication that interest rates were “just below” neutral seemed to soothe investors’ worries about aggressive interest rate hikes.  This was a retreat from his comment in early October that the Fed’s rate setting was a “long way” from the neutral level.   While Powell’s comments put some investors at ease, others are still hesitant to jump back in with Chinese trade concerns still swirling.  Yesterday’s rally was broad-based with all but one of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors rising. The Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) erased their November decline, with a rally of more than 600 points.   On the day, the $DJI climbed  2.5% to 25366.43, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 2.9% to 7291.59, and  the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 2.3% to 2743.79.     

 

Credit Markets:

 

U.S. Treasuries climbed on Wednesday, after the Fed chairman’s speech tamped down fears of aggressive interest rate increases.  The yield on the 10yr. note (TNX) settled at 3.044%, down from 3.057% on Tuesday.  Short term treasuries rallied even more.  The yield on the 2yr. Treasury note, slid to 2.805% from 2.831% on Tuesday.

 

Energy:

 

Crude Oil futures (/CL) fell yesterday, after data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories rose for the 10th straight week. Futures for January delivery closed at a 52 week low of $50.29 a barrel, dropping 2.5%.  This morning, after briefly dropping below $50 per barrel, crude oil futures have reversed higher after sources reported that there could be Russian cooperation with a possible OPEC production cut.

 

Pre-Market:

 

After yesterday’s big rally, markets are pulling back a bit.  European markets were mostly higher, but limited to the upside.  As of this writing,  S&P 500 futures (/ES) are 0.2% lower near 2736 and U.S. Crude oil futures (/CL) are 1.5% higher and trading near $51.20 per barrel.

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

2:00 am CT – President Draghi Speaks/ECB Stability Review

7:00 am CT – Personal Spending/ Income 

7:30 am CT – Weekly Unemployment 

9:00 am CT – Pending Homes Sales

9:30 am CT-   EIA Natural Gas Report

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Minutes

1:30 pm CT – FOMC Member  Mester Speaks

1:30 pm CT – FOMC Member  Evans Speaks

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply

 

Notable Earnings:     

   

Thursday – 11/29:

Before Market: ANF, DLTR, EXPR

After Market:    AMBA, HPQ, GME, PANW, PVH, SPLK, WDAY

Friday– 11/30:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:     N/A

 

 

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Nov 28, 2018 - Market Blog

11/28/2018

 

Don’t Cry For Me Argentina!

 

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U.S. Equities:

 

U.S. Equities (/ES) are hinting at the likely potential of double-digit gains on the S&P 500  (SPX) at the open as a possible break-through on the exasperated trade gridlock with China finally appears in reach. President Trump’s economic advisor has repeatedly hinted towards  that front ahead of one of the most important G-20 meetings in recent history coming this weekend in Buenos Aries. Both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones ($DJI) have enjoyed a 2% resurgence since hitting lows late last week as investors scramble to acquire perceived value among battered names. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) is also attempting to regain its mojo back above 7000 with a 4th possible wining session ahead should early momentum carry through the entire session.  A preliminary GDP reading just shared signaled a 3.5% unrevised growth pace annually thanks in a big part to the recent tax cuts as the economy continues to press on. 

 

Credit Markets:

 

U.S. Treasury markets are currently contending with a 3.06% yield on the 10 year ahead of a key speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later this morning.  Nearly $50 Billion in notes will be auctioned off during the course of the session which will help to better assess current demand. 

 

Energy:

 

Crude Futures (/CL) are trading modestly lower this morning near $51 a barrel albeit off its 52 week trough carved out earlier this week.  Weekly inventory results will be shared an hour after the market open with a 0.6 million barrel build anticipated from the official Energy Information Administration (EIA).  Preliminary results from the American Petroleum Institute (API) report also signaled a strong stockpile over the past 7 days. Any rumblings ahead of next week's OPEC meeting will also garner attention.  

 

Pre-Market:

 

Volatility (VIX) has contracted for a 4th straight day, currently by 2% to hold steady near the 18.5 range.  Attention will shift to remarks from FOMC Chair Powell as the highlight of today even as he takes on heavy criticism from the administration around his handling of monetary policy as of late.  Asian markets saw a clean sweep of 1% advances across all major benchmarks echoing the same positive sentiment around a potential deal being struck by year's end.  European Markets are slightly less optimistic, but still seeing fractional gains in all major bourses ahead of the highly anticipated summit. 

 

Major Economic Reports:

 

7:30 am CT –   Corporate Profits

7:30 am CT –   Wholesale Inventories 

7:30 am CT –   Preliminary GDP

9:00 am CT –   New Homes Sales

9:00 am CT –   Richmond Manufacturing Index

9:30 am CT –   EIA Petroleum Status

11:00 am CT – Fed Chair Powell Speaks

 

Notable Earnings:     

  

Wednesday– 11/28:

Before Market: BURL, CHS, DKS, SINA, SJM, TIF, WB

After Market:  BOX, GES, LZB, TLYS

 

Thursday – 11/29:

Before Market: ANF, DLTR, EXPR

After Market:   AMBA, HPQ, GME, PANW, PVH, SPLK, WDAY

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Nov 27, 2018 - Market Blog

11/27/2018

 

Retail Rebound?? 

 

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U.S. Equities:  Stocks rallied yesterday after strong Black Friday results sent retail shares higher.  One of Monday’s biggest gainers was Amazon (AMZN), which rose 5.3% to $1,581.33.  The online retail giant is expected to account for 20% of holiday sales this year. The S&P Retail sector added 2% overall, with Target (TGT) and Kohl’s (KSS) both gaining almost 3%.  Retailers are expecting an additional sales boost this week as many are running Cyber Monday promotions.  A bounce back in oil, helped lift energy shares, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) gaining almost 2% to $76.98.  On the day, The Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) added 1.5% to 24640.24, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 2.1% to 7081.85, and the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.6% to 2673.45.

 

Credit Markets: The Yield on the 10 yr. Treasury note (TNX) rose to 3.070% from 3.045% on Friday.  This marks the largest rise in the benchmark yield in more than three weeks.

 

Energy: Crude oil futures(/CL) rose off of their lowest levels in over a year, as traders felt the latest move lower might have finally been overdone.  On Monday, Crude oil rose 2.4% to $51.63 a barrel.  This marks the largest one day gain since October 1st .

 

Pre-Market:

The main piece of economic data today will be the Consumer Confidence report which will be released at 9:00am CT.  Equity markets have moved lower overnight, after President Trump told the WSJ that he is likely to raise the tariff level on $200 billion of Chinese imports to 25% from 10% at the beginning of 2019.  He also added he may add tariffs on an additional $267 billion of Chinese goods if there is no deal with China.   At the time of this writing, S&P futures (/ES) are down  0.3% near 2661 and  U.S. Crude oil futures (/CL) are unchanged near $51.75 per barrel.

 

Major Economic Reports:

7:55 am CT –  Redbook

8:00 am CT –  CS Composite Housing Price Index

9:00 am CT –  Consumer Confidence

1:30 pm CT –  FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

1:30 pm CT –  FOMC Member  George Speaks

1:30 pm CT –  FOMC Member  Evans Speaks

 

Notable Earnings:       

 

Tuesday– 11/27:

Before Market: CBRL, EV, HIBB

After Market:    CRM

 

Wednesday– 11/28:

Before Market: BURL, CHS, DKS, SINA, SJM, TIF, WB

After Market:    BOX, GES, LZB, TLYS

 

*Follow us on Twitter @TradeWise

 

**BOLD above indicates important and potential market-moving news and information

 

TradeWise Advisors is offering a free trial for 2 trading strategies for 60 days each: Use coupon code Marketblog to apply this trial on your current account at www.tradewise.com or contact us at support@tradewise.com

Nov 26, 2018 - The Week Ahead

TradeWise – The Week Ahead

November  26, 2018

 

Prospects are looking better this morning as U.S. equity futures (/ES) rip over 1% higher off a handful of positive developments.  Battered FAANG stocks look eager to claw back some of their recent losses stemming from October as the most shunned sector as of late attempts to regain their footing. The U.K. finally appears to be making major strides towards an eventual deal to withdraw from the European Union with important trade pacts still in place. Italy is also showing signs of concession as they back step from a budgetary impasse with the European Union in an attempt to reign in their ballooning debt burden. A reported $6.2 Billion in holiday sales over the weekend has provided a much needed boost to U.S. retailers as online sales continue to dominate traditional brick/mortar locations. 

 

Oil Prices (/CL) have also reversed course early this morning with nearly a 2% improvement following last week’s ugly performance.  U.S. 10 year Treasury yields remain steady near 3.06% with major implications coming throughout the week to influence pricing into early next year. Volatility appears to be in check for now with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) backing off nearly $1 to 20.55 with improving market conditions set  to start out the week. Gold Futures (/GC) have continued to enjoy its recent resurgence with the precious metal holding steady near $1225 an ounce which may come into play all week with various geo-political events shaping up.    

 

Earnings will continue to taper off this week with just sporadic reporting expected from a select group of both retail and tech names. Today’s economic data will start out extremely light with only regional data coming out of Chicago and Dallas on the manufacturing front.  Tomorrow will feature consumer confidence readings along with a string of Fed speakers which will be constant through Friday. Mid-week will usher in comments from Chairman Jerome Powell along with a glimpse into key preliminary GDP figures to assess how much the economy may have cooled down after a record pace. Thursday’s most important checkpoint will come from the releasing of the last Fed Meeting Minutes from earlier this month to better extrapolate how likely a hike will occur in December  or into early next year.  Attention will shift towards Buenos Aries at the tail end of the week as The G-20 summit commences with the United States and China squaring off to hopefully pave the way for some type of de-escalation of the ongoing trade war. 

 

Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

 

Monday:

A.M. –  JKS

P.M.–   BKE

 

Tuesday:

A.M.–   CBRL, EV, HIBB

P.M .–   CRM

 

Wednesday:

A.M. – BURL, CHS, DKS, SINA, SJM, TIF, WB

P.M. –BOX, GES, LZB, TLYS

 

Thursday:

 

A.M.–   ANF, DLTR, EXPR

P.M. –  AMBA, HPQ, GME, PANW, PVH, SPLK, WDAY

 

Friday:

A.M.–   N/A

P.M. –  N/A

 

Economic Releases (11/26– 11/30):

 

Monday:

7:30 am CT –   Chicago Fed. National Activity Index

8:00 am CT –   ECB President Draghi Speaks

9:30 am CT –   Dallas Fed. Manufacturing Index

 

Tuesday:

7:55 am CT –  Redbook

8:00 am CT –  CS Composite Housing Price Index

9:00 am CT –  Consumer Confidence

1:30 pm CT – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

1:30 pm CT – FOMC Member  George Speaks

1:30 pm CT – FOMC Member  Evans Speaks

 

Wednesday:

7:30 am CT –   Corporate Profits

7:30 am CT –   Wholesale Inventories 

7:30 am CT –   Preliminary GDP

9:00 am CT –   New Homes Sales

9:00 am CT –   Richmond Manufacturing Index

9:30 am CT –   EIA Petroleum Status

11:00 am CT – Fed Chair Powell Speaks

 

Thursday:

2:00 am CT – President Draghi Speaks/ECB Stability Review

7:00 am CT – Personal Spending/ Income 

7:30 am CT – Weekly Unemployment 

9:00 am CT – Pending Homes Sales

9:30 am CT-   EIA Natural Gas Report

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Minutes

1:30 pm CT – FOMC Member  Mester Speaks

1:30 pm CT – FOMC Member  Evans Speaks

3:30 pm CT – Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply

 

Friday:

(All Day)       –  G-20 Day 1 Meeting

8:00 am CT  –  FOMC Member Williams Speaks

8:45 am CT  –  Chicago PMI

12:00 pm CT–  Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

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